Hamid Khoshayand, an expert on regional issues

In recent days, after 13 years of severed political and diplomatic relations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced his “willingness” to invite Syrian President Bashar Assad to Ankara and meet and talk with him.

The Turkish president suddenly announced his plan to invite Bashar al-Assad a week after a wave of violence in Turkey against “Syrian immigrants.” He emphasized in his statement: We will extend our Invitation (to Assad). This invitation may take place at any moment. We hope to restore Türkiye-Syria relations to what they were in the past. Now we have reached a point where as soon as Bashar Assad takes a step to improve relations with Turkey, we will give a positive response.”

Regarding Erdogan’s “goals” behind these statements, which indicate his “serious decision” to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, there are significant points, the most important of which are mentioned:

One: With about 4 million Syrian refugees, Türkiye is the largest host country for Syrian refugees in the world. The growing trend of Syrian refugees in this country has faced the Turkish government with a worrying issue called the increase of “anti-refugee sentiments” and violence against Syrian refugees.

Professor Ozdagh, the leader of the Zafar Party and an expert on security issues, said in a thoughtful speech to his nationalist supporters during the municipal election campaigns: “We will face a strange population explosion in the future, and the number of Syrians in Turkey will reach 21 million in 2040.” This is a real threat, and against such a situation, we will not be able to protect our country.”

Following these provocative statements, as well as the “violence” that is taking place against Syrian refugees, Erdogan has well understood that the continuation of such a situation can create dangerous social and ethnic tensions for Turkey, and if the influx of refugees is not stopped particularly amid the “severe economic recession” Turkey’s domestic politics will be in a “catastrophic” state.

While internal opposition in this field is increasing and the issue of Syrian refugees is actually becoming a “strong pressure lever” from the opposition parties against the ruling party, Erdogan is looking for a basic solution to deal with the current situation. Therefore, he has put the “restoration of diplomatic relations” with the Syrian government on the agenda.

Two: Curbing Kurdish terrorism of Syrian origin has been the Erdogan government’s constant “justification” for illegal interventions in Syrian territory. According to the Turkish government, the Syrian Democratic Forces, known as the People’s Protection Units (YPR), which are supported by the United States and are stationed in areas in the north and northeast of Syria, are no different from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, therefore, are considered a threat against the territorial integrity of Turkey.

Despite conducting three military operations against the Kurdish units in 2016, 2018, and 2019, Turkey is aware today that the danger of creating an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria will not be eliminated only by military operations. Still, it will make the situation more chaotic and cause “greater challenges” for Damascus and other interested actors in Syria. Therefore, Ankara is trying to “repair” the relationship with Damascus, if possible, to form a united front with the Syrian government and within the framework of legal mechanisms against the Kurds.

Three: In addition, Türkiye’s attempt to normalize relations with Syria takes place in a larger framework. In recent years, the Turkish government has been looking for a “less aggressive” and “more interactive” foreign policy for various reasons, including domestic economic problems, political survival of the ruling current, increasing regional power, etc.

In this regard, Erdogan’s government has improved and developed its bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. One of the important aspects of the aforementioned policy is reviving relations with Syria, which has overcome crisis and instability and has today largely regained its previous position in the region and the Arab world.

Four: Türkiye is experiencing its worst economic period since the Justice and Development Party came to power. The devaluation of the lira, the increase in the inflation rate, and other problems in Turkey’s economic sector have caused a sharp decline in the popularity of the ruling party. If the situation continues, it will definitely lose the upcoming elections by a large margin.

Erdogan’s government seeks to improve relations with the Syrian government to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, for which it spends billions of dollars annually. The aim is to ” earn more currency,” solve part of the internal problems, and open up the large Syrian market.

In any case, the consequences and challenges caused by the Erdogan government’s hostile policies against Syria for several years and the country’s passing through the crisis stage and reaching stability have made Ankara’s politicians understand that not only the continuation of the atmosphere of tension in bilateral relations with Syria is not beneficial but instead, it causes internal problems in various ways, including internal actions against Syrian refugees in Turkey.

But here is an important point: As the Syrian government has stated many times, it “welcomes” all initiatives related to improving relations with Turkey. Any change in the current situation in the relations between the two countries requires the “withdrawal of Turkish forces from the occupied areas” as the first step.

As long as Ankara does not make a clear and public commitment to withdrawing the Turkish army and its affiliated groups from the lands under its control in Syria, initiatives to resume relations with Syria are unlikely to reach anywhere. The recognition of the territorial integrity and “full sovereignty of Syria” is the main precondition in reviving relations between Damascus and Ankara.