In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Saber Gol Anbari stated that Bashar al-Assad’s visit to Beijing was his second visit in the past two decades and the first after the 2011 Syrian crisis, and added: Although China did not enter into China affairs like Iran and Syria, it has always supported the government of that country in international forums. Even now, this meeting has more of a political message opposing the United States. It can be examined within the framework of China’s new policy in sensitive world areas. However, in a sensitive country like Syria, which has many sides, Beijing will not create a geopolitical and political confrontation with the US.

Saying that China has entered into critical cases in the region to highlight its presence in the Middle East, he noted that this presence is not necessarily in opposition to the US. The Middle East is of particular importance to China in terms of economy and energy resources; for this reason, China is seeking to increase its presence and political role in this region, and it is not unlikely that it will intend to enter Syria in the future to solve the internal crisis, or even to mediate between Syria and the Israeli regime.

Emphasizing that China seeks to ensure its macroeconomic interests in the Middle East, the expert on West Asia affairs added: Syria is on the path of the Belt and Road Initiative; that country is in the neighborhood of Iraq, which supplies 10% of China’s energy, and on the other hand, Syria is a neighbor of Turkey, a country that is the intersection of the corridors of Asia and Europe. For this reason, Syria is of particular importance in China’s Middle East policies.

He said that during Assad’s visit to China, one of the memorandums of understanding was the development of cooperation for the new Silk Road and recalled: In January 2022, China and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding regarding the Belt and Road Initiative, but this memorandum was not implemented. After unveiling the US plan at the G20 meeting in India to connect the Middle East, India, and Europe, China is trying to accelerate the development of its corridor because the US has proposed a new corridor against the Chinese corridor.

Regarding the message that Russia will receive from China’s efforts to increase relations with Syria, Gol Anbari said: In a situation where Russia is involved in the Ukraine war and plays a lesser role in important cases, China has gained the motivation to be more present in Syria. But it should not be forgotten that China’s policy in the Middle East, especially Syria, is entirely different from that of Russia. Russia’s presence in Syria is military-political, but Beijing is looking for a political-economic presence. Therefore, the strategic partnership between China and Syria cannot be seen as a threat to Russia’s interests in Syria.

The analyst of West Asia affairs, stating that Russia’s non-participation in Syrian economic projects has given an opportunity to China, pointed out: Today, what remains of Syria after more than a decade of war is a devastated and fragmented country and a needy and displaced nation. The Syrian economy has collapsed and is facing an economic super-crisis that is more difficult to overcome than a military war. In this situation, neither the Syrian government can get out of this super-crisis, nor its allies, which are caught up in crises and severe economic sanctions, can help that country much. In the past year, Syria has again become the scene of protests, and recently, “Sweida” has witnessed massive protests in the areas controlled by the government, where slogans of subversion can sometimes be heard.

Recalling that China’s position on the Syrian crisis will not go beyond a series of general positions, such as calling for a political solution, and will not enter into the sensitive aspects of that case, he emphasized that this presence is within the framework of the long-term plan that the Chinese have for their economic presence in Syria. But in the current conditions concerning the US sanctions, they are unlikely to want to enter into comprehensive and serious economic work with Syria.

Stating that in the current situation, China will not follow macroeconomic requirements to establish a strategic economic partnership with Syria, Gol Anbari considered the US “Caesar” Act as the most important obstacle to improving the economic relations of the Syrian government and said: One of the important targets of Assad is to convince China to enter into the reconstruction of Syria and its economy seriously. If China is decisive, it can save Syria from this problem and bring it to economic stability within a few years. But such a measure will involve them in a serious challenge and problem with the US in Syria.

Referring to the three documents and memorandums of understanding for economic cooperation signed between China and Syria, he stated: The signing of the memorandum with general titles without clear financial agreements is indicative of the fact that China currently has no intention of doing serious economic work in Syria and what is more likely is the implementation of small scale projects, not macro-economic plans. In recent years, Beijing has made promises to invest in Syria, such as the promise of investing two billion dollars in 2017, but it was not implemented.

At the same time, Gol Anbari added: In addition to the obstacle of sanctions, the Chinese do not want to make significant investments in a war-torn country that has not reached the level of ensuring political and security stability and are watchful of preparation of international and domestic fields for serious investment in Syria.

The expert on West Asia affairs added that inviting Assad sent a Chinese message to the US, but not a sharp message, instead a “calm and limited message” which was manifested as asking Assad for a not quite official and bilateral trip, but to participate in the opening of the Asian Games in Hangzhou.