In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on  Relations, Dr. Hamid Hakim referred to the recent positions of Armenia and the country’s decision to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and approve the statement recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in the parliament with a majority vote and stated: This document is expected to be signed by the president of Armenia and will come into effect 60 days after the completion of internal procedures. Considering that the International Criminal Court, by issuing a verdict, obliged the 123 member countries of this court to arrest the president of Russia and extradite him if he entered their territory, this brings a new duty and responsibility to the Armenian government in confronting Russia.

He added: Although Armenia has announced that this action is not against the Russian Federation, instead, it is a step to investigate the war crimes committed by Azerbaijan on the territory of Armenia; in any case, this action provoked the anger of Moscow that considered the decision, which was made according to the approach of the statute towards Russia, “completely hostile.”

The faculty member of Allameh Tabataba’i University refers to the emphasis of the Berzhensky doctrine, as the doctrine considered by the United States to contain the Soviet Union and now Russia in that region, based on the necessity of presence and influence in the countries surrounding Russia to contain it, continued: In return, those areas are important for Russia. Therefore, that region has now become the arena of coercion and display of power between the two sides.

Saying that Putin has stated that he has no problem with either Armenia or with Pashinyan, at the same time, Hakim recalled: A few days before the September 19 war, Putin had said in an interview that Armenia, by declaring adherence to the 1991 “Alma-Ata” Declaration, recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and thus put Russia in a difficult position, and Aliyev also pointed out in his talks with Russia that Armenia recognizes the fact that Karabakh is part of its territory and acknowledged that the situation in Karabakh is no longer an issue that can be investigated and thus has been resolved. Putin had said that if Armenia itself recognizes Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, what can be said; Adding that there is nothing left to be said. A week after Putin’s remarks, Baku started military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Saying that the escalation of misunderstandings and misinterpretations of each other’s actions by Russia and Armenia has strained the relations between the two countries, and apparently, they do not want to take a step towards resolving such misunderstandings and harmonizing views, Hakim said: It seems that in the current situation, Russia blames Armenia due to the lack of sufficient conditions and facilities to play a role in the region; in addition, after Pashinyan came to power, Moscow adopted a policy of ignoring that country due to his more pro-Western slogans than the previous prime ministers. This issue was even seen in personal encounters between Putin and Pashinyan. In this situation, Moscow became more interested in the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Emphasizing that we are now witnessing a change in conditions in favor of Azerbaijan and against Armenia, Hakim added: These conditions were aggravated under the influence of the war in Ukraine. Besides, Russia also pursues economic benefits from being close to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s game is played on the West’s ground. Due to Baku’s particular interactions with the West and its regional representatives, Russia has a unique view of that country. It has been patient in its relations with Baku because Azerbaijan has a key position in supporting Russia’s expansion of the North-South international transport corridor.

The university professor stated that Russia should take an extensive view of this region to create a balance in the Caucasus and Central Asia, adding: After the war in Ukraine in February 2022, relations between Yerevan and Moscow have been tense to the point where Pashinyan stated that he can no longer rely on Moscow as a guarantor of his security. Yerevan sent humanitarian aid to Kyiv and passed the Rome Statute in parliament. Of course, apart from Pashinyan, several other officials of that country have emphasized that Russia is no longer a reliable ally.

The analyst of the Caucasus and Russia issues, recalling that Turkey’s influence has been strengthened by the expansion of relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and we are witnessing an increase in non-Russian mechanisms in the region, noted Russia wanted to manage the tension in the 2020 war. Even an agreement concluded under the name of the ceasefire, which included Article 9 and the creation of a communication corridor, was in this direction, but it did not succeed. After that, we see the opening of Turkey’s hand in coordination with some parties and Russia’s silence, Armenia’s distance from Russia, and that country’s tendency towards the West.

At the same time, Hakim stated that the roots of extensive interactions between Russia and Armenia still exist in Yerevan, and considering Russia’s position in Armenia and the Caucasus, Moscow will not easily forego that region and noted: The geopolitical factors of the Caucasus are a source of weakness and tension for them. But it is attractive to other governments. This issue has caused the presence and influence of foreign players in that region to secure their interests. In the past weeks, Europe has taken positions and movements such as emphasizing respect for the right of return of the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, supporting the prospect of Georgia joining the Union, participating in the project of running the electric cable along the Black Sea, signing a new gas contract with Baku, and trying to play a role in mediating negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.

Saying that Russia could have a more active and colorful presence, but we are witnessing the reduction of its roles in the region, he considered the Western support to Armenia and even Georgia to be limited to the rhetoric and continued: In this situation, a significant and strategic mistake of the countries is that by increasing the tendency towards the Western parties, they actually advance their interests. As we can see, the US and the West did not take any practical action against issues such as the rights of the Armenian minority in the Caucasus and the threats caused by the blocking of the Lachin Corridor on the lives of the residents of that region.