Predictable Scenarios in US Elections and Iran’s Approach

2024/02/21 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online- Opinion: While the Gaza crisis and Israel’s inhuman behavior in dealing with the people of the Strip cast a shadow over all international issues and has become the biggest challenge facing the world community, the type and nature of America's relationship with the Israeli regime and the impact of its actions on the global level and in different regions have also made the upcoming US elections a key and important issue in 2024. Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri - university professor

Donald Trump’s repeated victories in intra-party competitions and his reiteration of the “America First” slogan, lack of financial support for NATO, and preventing immigrants from entering this country, along with Joe Biden’s old age, the distractions and numerous gaffes of the incumbent US president in the timing of various speeches and the state of his physical health have raised doubts about the results of the US elections. Of course, Nikki Haley, the other Republican candidate, still hopes to win the internal party elections and become the president. She has predicted that a woman will be at the helm of executive affairs in the United States of America in 2024. That person would be herself or Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice president.

In such a situation, regardless of internal debates and competitions in America, it seems that the results of this election are of fundamental importance for the Islamic Republic of Iran, West Asia, and the Persian Gulf and can be one of the influential factors in the region’s development. In this regard, several possible scenarios can be considered;

One scenario could be the re-election of Biden. Current speculations indicate that Biden will not withdraw from the presidential race until Trump’s condition is decided Because if Trump is nominated, his chances as a nominee of the  Democrats are high. However, the possibility of realizing this scenario is low. Since 2021, Biden has lost his popularity among the American community for reasons such as the economic consequences of the pandemic and the adverse reaction to the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and due to his old age and unconventional behaviors and illusions, he has little chances of winning again in the upcoming elections.

Another scenario could be the victory of younger candidates from the Democratic Party, such as Biden’s first deputy that is Mrs. Kamla Harris, or someone like Pete Buttigieg (Afghanistan war veteran, the youngest presidential candidate in the 2020 election, the current US Secretary of Transportation, and of course the first openly gay member of the cabinet who received a vote of confidence from the Senate). Of course, due to the not-so-impressive performance of the first option as the first vice president and the relatively low popularity of the second option, their chances of winning the elections are not very high Unless, in the months leading up to the election, these people make new trump cards that will change their position among the American voters, or the Democratic Party introduces more effective and influential candidates. Of course, the concern of Trump winning again can become one factor in the Democrats’ victory. The former US president is still profoundly disliked in many parts of the country and among some demographic groups, so if Trump is chosen as his party’s nominee, he may be highly motivated among voters in favor of Democrats to fight for the presidency again.

If any of these two scenarios come true and the candidates of the Democratic Party win, it can be predicted that in almost all events and developments in the West Asian region, things will continue to turn on the same heel as before. We will witness the continuation of the policy of bargaining and evasive negotiations with Iran and simultaneous containment of our country, all-round support for the Israeli regime, along with the continuation of critical approaches towards the right-wing leaders of Israel, and maintaining a friendly and critical relationship with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.

The third scenario could be the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election; the former US president has been impeached twice after losing the 2020 presidential race; he tried to prevent the peaceful transition of power to his successor;  as a result, he is now facing several criminal charges. Nevertheless, if Trump can survive the political and economic accusations in several US state courts and not be removed from the competition, he has a high chance of winning the election.

Trump makes good use of Americans’ fears and concerns about ethnic and cultural mixing in America, home ownership problems, decent wages against inflation, and, of course, the opportunity to have a university education. And by speaking about these challenging issues, he has been able to attract the support of many American voters, at least in current polls; it appeals to many American voters. If he wins the election, the policy of maximum pressure on Iran and maximum support for the Israeli regime will be resumed. In addition, the development of the Abraham Pact and the reconciliation of the Arab countries with the Israeli regime without a fair settlement of the Palestinian issue is once again the priority of the US Administration’s plans. It is very likely that the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which took place in March 1401, will lead to an agreement on paper and will be changed, and probably the proxy wars and the level of tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors will increase again.

The fourth scenario is the victory of Nikki Haley (former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump era) in the next US presidential election. However, Haley’s current low popularity among Republican voters weakens the possibility of her victory against Trump, and there is a high possibility that she entered the race as a coverup candidate and finally joined the coalition and cooperated with Trump’s rivals. But her victory in the US presidential election as the first female president of this country can bring changes in the approach of the US government.

Although, if she wins, she will be subject to the general approaches of the Republican Party, most likely, during her presidency, we will not see the Trump administration’s greyhounds and stubborn nationalist policies. Nevertheless, if this scenario is realized, all-around pressure on Iran, support for the Israeli regime and the development of the Abraham Pact, and efforts to create distance between the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and the Islamic Republic of Iran will increase. We will witness a relative rise in creating distance between the Persian Gulf Arab states and the IR of Iran.

Finally, it should be said that although, at the current stage, it is not possible to speak with certainty about the results of the US merican elections and the realization of the above scenarios, the clear and definite point is that the results of this country’s elections have a direct and clear effect on the security order in the region, the approach of the Arab countries in the region Regarding Iran and the level of American pressure and sanctions on our country. As a result, according to the experiences gained from the approaches of both the Republican and Ddemocratic governments towards our country and the region, the diplomatic apparatus of the current stage should think of measures to neutralize the threats that the results of the upcoming American elections can bring to Iran.

Deepening relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, actively participating in solving regional crises, including the future of Palestine, and preventing this issue from progressing without Iran’s presence, and expanding the number of strategic allies are some of Iran’s solutions in the field of foreign policy. Nevertheless, the most important and effective solution of Iran should be focused on the domestic field and the development of social capital, economic prosperity and hope among the Iranian people. Makes

The fourth scenario is the victory of Nikki Haley (former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump era) in the next US presidential election. However, Haley’s current low popularity among Republican voters weakens the possibility of her victory against Trump, and there is a high possibility that she entered the race as a cover candidate, and finally joined the coalition and cooperated with Trump’s rivals. but her victory in the US presidential election as the first female president of this country can bring changes in the approach of the US government.

Although, if طhe wins, he will be subject to the general approaches of the Republican Party, but most likely, during hثقis presidency, we will not see the Trump administration’s greyhounds and stubborn nationalist policies. Nevertheless, if this scenario is realized, all-round pressure on Iran, support for the Israeli regime and the development of the Abraham Pact, and efforts to create distance between the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and the Islamic Republic of Iran will increase, and witness a relative increase in tensions in the region.  Finally, it should be noted  that although at the current stage it is not possible to speak with certainty about the results of the American elections and the realization of the above scenarios, the clear and definite point is that the results of the elections have a direct and clear effect on the security order in the region, the approach of the Arab countries in the region Regarding Iran and the level of American pressure and sanctions on our country. As a result, according to the experiences gained from the approaches of both the Republican and Democratic governments towards Iran and the region, the diplomatic apparatus of the current stage should think of measures to neutralize the threats the results of the upcoming American elections can bring to Iran.

Deepening relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, actively participating in solving regional crises, including the future of Palestine, and preventing this issue from progressing without Iran’s presence, and expanding the number of strategic allies are some of Iran’s solutions in the field of foreign policy. Nevertheless, the most important and effective solution of Iran should be focused on the domestic field and the development of social capital, economic prosperity and hope among the Iranian people. The political system in any country that moves towards meeting the demands and needs of its people and has their support and satisfaction behind it is invincible, and no foreign power will be able to bring it to its knees.

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