Changing the Political Scene of the Ukraine War

2024/02/18 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online: An expert on European issues said: The war of attrition in Ukraine has caused Russia and the supporters of Ukraine to sharpen their tone towards each other in the political arena. to show that they are still determined to advance their goals in the war.

Morteza Makki, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said: Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently threatened to use missile technology, armored vehicles, and all the weapons that are used on the battlefield. Because on the battlefield, the winner is the one who reacts faster to the enemy’s war tools.

He said: “Recently, the European Union member states agreed to approve a 50 billion euro financial aid package for Ukraine.” In fact, despite the continuation of the political divide in the US administration regarding the continuation of financial and military aid to Ukraine, the Europeans are still trying to show that they support Ukraine in the face of Russia.

Referring to the approval of the European Union’s 50 billion euro financial aid to Ukraine, he added: “The prospect of the Ukrainian war is still facing serious uncertainties because the advance of the Ukrainian army has come to a standstill, and there is a deep disagreement between the army commanders and Ukrainian President Zelensky.”

He said about these disagreements: “The commander of the Ukrainian army wants to receive more financial aid and weapons for the war with Russia, and the lack of continuity of this aid has caused the Ukrainian army to be unable to inflict serious blows on the Russian positions in the field.”

The expert on European issues continued: “On the other hand, the entry of Donald Trump as the final candidate of the Republicans in the presidential race has created a lot of hope in Russia.” Because Trump and the Republicans believe that the continuation of financial and military aid to Ukraine is not in the framework of the interests and national security of the United States, and the price of this confrontation should be paid by the Europeans and not by the United States.

Noting that 70% of the arms aid provided to Ukraine comes from the United States, and Europe without the United States is practically unable to offer more financial and military aid to Ukraine and fill the gap of American aid, Makki explained: “One of the reasons why Vladimir Putin is bolder than the past and has adopted harsh positions against the Westerners is the hesitation and split that exists within the ruling US administration regarding the Ukraine crisis. “Putin hopes that with the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential elections in November, he will be able to get serious concessions from the West and stabilize Russia’s positions in Ukraine.”

He added: “Europeans also have serious concerns about these American positions and the possibility of Trump’s victory in the November polls. For this reason, they are trying to increase their military and financial support to Ukraine more than in the past. In parallel with this aid, they are trying to adopt more explicit and transparent positions to support Ukraine.”

According to this expert, the speculations at the level of European and American political think tanks concerning the prospect of the Ukraine crisis indicate that the West is probably preparing for a divided Ukraine like the Korean crisis in the 1950s. However, the Korean model cannot be simulated in Ukraine.

He added: “It is true that behind North Korea, there is a big country like China, but Russia also has many differences with North Korea. In the meantime, Russia has a large capacity to supply military weapons and income sources such as oil and gas, which has increased Moscow’s resilience against Western sanctions and pressures.

Makki believes that today, neither Russia can occupy more territory in Ukraine nor Ukraine has the strength to push Russia back, and the Western countries also do not want to use nuclear power, even at a low level.

He continued: “This is while Russia remains under sanctions and pressure and will become a permanent threat to the West. At the same time, if Trump makes it to the White House once again, it is likely that the Europeans will move towards a compromise and truce with Russia, and the result of such a deal will probably be the division of Ukraine.”

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