Referring to the efforts by Turkiye to resume the implementation of the grain agreement, Roohollah Modabber told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations that before the Second Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, the President of Russia, in a note pointing to the important aspects of the reasons for the disruption of the grain agreement and its meaningless, blamed the Western side, especially the American side, with the coordination of Ukraine for disruption in the implementation of the deal.
He pointed to the violation of the West’s commitment regarding lifting sanctions on the Russian financial, banking, and SWIFT network. He added that on the one hand, the US has sanctioned Russian fertilizer, and on the other hand, it declares that its goal in establishing a grain agreement is humanitarian. At the same time, Africa desperately needs Russian fertilizers in agriculture, and African officials have emphasized that the embargo on Russian fertilizers is actually an embargo on Africa. Therefore, the Westerners played a double and hypocritical game regarding the grain agreement in this situation.
Recalling that Ukraine has laid mines in a large part of the Black Sea, this analyst of Russia and the Caucasus said that the extent of mining is so great that sometimes the Ukrainians forget their location. Sometimes these mines go to the coast of Turkey through the waves of the sea. Russia has also warned that the Western side is using the ships that were supposed to transport grain from Ukrainian ports to transfer weapons.
Modabber emphasized that the military use of grain ships was against the grain agreement and continued that Russia recently, by increasing its inspections in the Black Sea, detected several ships carrying weapons bound for Ukraine. According to these conditions, apparently, Russia has not unilaterally withdrawn from the grain agreement, but this situation and the created crises, wrong promises, and violations of the West’s commitments practically destroyed the grain agreement.
He continued that 12 hours before the last round of the grain agreement, Ukrainian forces attacked the Crimean bridge under the condition that Russia also agreed to extend it. This has a clear message. With these attacks, all analyses indicated that the Westerners want to create a crisis so that this agreement does not conclude.
Reminding that the West, and especially the United States, do not seek the interests of underdeveloped countries, especially in the African continent, in the discussion of the grain agreement, Modabber added that the grain that was exported from Ukraine in the previous stages was not intended for the African continent. Because it was promised that about 30% of them should enter Africa, but despite this commitment, they entered Europe! Here too, the US acted contrary to its obligations; Because the primary goal of the grain deal was not to create a hunger crisis and food poverty in the African continent, but the West did not adhere to this commitment.
He pointed to Africa’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war and the “We are all Putin” slogans in the demonstrations. He stated that African people know Russia is not the main culprit in the current crises, especially in the grain crisis, as 17 African presidents emphasized this issue at the St. Petersburg summit. Today, the double game of the West has been exposed to the people of Africa, and its goals are clear to independent analysts.
This expert on Russia and the Caucasus issues, while explaining Turkey’s role and the political and economic effects of the disruption in the grain agreement on this country, said that “Turkey made two strategic mistakes towards Russia in the new era, and now it is trying to moderate the situation to some extent. Hosting Zelensky and releasing the Azov Battalion troops caused the cancellation of Putin’s visit and his meeting with Erdogan. For over two months, the Turkish side has been constantly trying to normalize relations. Erdogan has shown that he is turning towards the developments. However, Turkish analysts and those close to the government still emphasize that creating a distance between Turkey and Russia is a big mistake.
Modabber stated that Turkey is still seeking to play an influential role regarding the grain agreement and continued that since all grain transfer services, including the security escort of ships and minesweepers, are provided by Russia, Turkey also insists that the West must comply with its commitments. While the Russians remove mine to move these ships in a safe channel, the Western ships are laying mines.
Emphasizing the negative role of the West in creating a crisis regarding grain obligations, he noted that it seems that the grain deal will be extended in the end. But the disruption has had several consequences. Among other things, it has increased the price of grains and caused problems in the process of grain reaching African countries.
Emphasizing that the West cannot export these grains without coordination with Russia, this analyst of Russia and Caucasus issues said that the West does not want to settle any of the dimensions of the Ukraine crisis and is only looking for the continuation and expansion of its dimensions. This challenge has benefits for the American government and companies, and at the same time, it affects the interests of Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. These are calculated games so that a dialogue between the West and Russia does not occur and the crisis continues.