A Glimpse at Developments of Intl. Order; a Year after Ukrainian War

2023/03/11 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online - Interview: An analyst of international affairs, saying that there is no sign of an end to the war in Ukraine in the current conditions, emphasized: Now the equations of the past are messed up and the new system is based on multilateralism and neutrality and relies on regionalism in which regional powers will cooperate and compete with each other at the international level.

Hassan Beheshtipour, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the positions of Western countries on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the increase in the level of hostility between the East and the West, and explained the geo-economic and geopolitical, historical, religious, racial and cultural connections between Russia and Ukraine and clarified: Russia has about 1580 kilometers of joint border with Ukraine and the security of the two countries is closely linked. Ukraine had a close relationship with Russia for 12 centuries and participated in two important wars together with Russia.

Saying that Zbigniew Brzezinski had mentioned in his book “Chess” in 1997, that ‘If we want to be successful against Eurasia, which is a threat to the West, we must create a separation between Russia and Ukraine, and added, from Brzezinski’s point of view, Russia cannot be successful in Eurasia without Ukraine. Therefore, according to the developments that took place, Russia felt being threatened by Ukraine in all aspects, and everyone understood this feeling.

The international affairs analyst emphasized that Russia’s criticism of the United States, that it ignored international mechanisms by attacking Afghanistan and chose unilateralism instead of multilateralism, was committed by itself by attacking Ukraine, adding: Russia has counted on 17 million Ukrainian of Russian origin and its estimation was that it could use them and overthrow Zelensky’s government with a blitz; however, despite the fact that the Ukrainian side was in turmoil, with the military aggression, an alliance was formed between them, and the leaders of Ukraine, contrary to Russia’s expectations, did not flee from Kiev. They resisted and the Russian army suffered a big defeat around Kiev and was forced to station in the east.

Beheshtipour stated that Ukraine suffered the most during the war and pointed to the high volume of displaced and immigrant population in that country and continued: Russia managed its severe economic crisis and tried to prevent devaluation of the ruble, but capital flight still continues strongly and due to the sanctions, the GDP and economic growth of that country decreased a lot. Despite the management of Putin’s team, such issues will face the country with major problems in the medium and long term.

Most important winners, losers of Ukrainian war

He pointed to the global food crisis and numerous crises in Europe and said: The United States won the war and continues to exploit its economic, political and geopolitical benefits. The country increased its gas exports by 20 percent, and countries like Sweden and Finland, which were neutral for years, officially started their membership process in NATO, and the expansion of NATO also began from the north towards Russia.

The expert on international affairs named China as the second beneficiary of the developments caused by the war in Ukraine and added: China now receives cheap oil and gas from Russia and has not had many political positions in favor of Moscow; because the economy of the country is tied to the US. At this point, Saudi Arabia made a huge profit with the increase in oil prices and was able to take steps to implement its long-term plans.

Beheshtipour pointed out that several plans for peace have been presented, but it seems that there is no sign of the end to the war, and unfortunately, the war will continue for at least the next six months. Now we are witnessing a different international system compared to the pre-war period.

He explained: The new system is based on multilateralism and neutrality and relies on regionalism in which regional powers will cooperate with each other and compete with each other at the international level. In the past, the powers were in complete competition with each other and sought to destroy each other; but now the international system is not bipolar, in addition, there is no power to destroy the other side, and the economy, politics and security have progressed significantly in the field of digitalization and globalization and are advancing the world in such a way that no side can seek to eliminate the other side. Because this measure will actually mean removing itself.

The expert on international affairs referred to the connection and entanglement of the interests in the new international system and creation of the highest competition between China and the United States, and regarding some analysis that the United States is trying to bring Iran and China into the battlefield of Russia against Ukraine or create a world war, said : It is definitely in the interest of some parties to create a war, including a world war, but the facts show that there is no basis for creating a world war, for the important reason that the interests of the powers are connected with each other. China has now invested 2,000 billion dollars in the United States, and the United States had 400 billion dollars in trade relations with China in 2022 alone. Today’s world cannot ignore China.

Saying that the US has invested about 3,200 billion dollars in China, Beheshtipour reminded: Although there may be proxy, limited and staged confrontations between them, it does not seem that we will witness widespread conflicts; because their interests are global. During the world wars, the interests were not yet divided and the parties wanted more benefits from the power cake, but in the digital era, the interests have been defined and the big powers have defined different areas for each other, which sometimes we see competition and sometimes cooperation.

He pointed to the interests of large arms manufacturing companies in creating war and criticized the analysis based on the Cold War mentality and continued: Now the equations of the past are messed up and we are witnessing the entanglement of interests. The East and the West, in the sense that existed in the past, no longer exist and the world is based on multinational capitalism. Of course, countries pursue their national interests, but in economics and business, the transnational dimension of acting prevails. In the East, China and India, which have extensive cooperation with the United States, and Russia definitely after the end of the war, start strengthening relations with the Americans. Such facts should be accepted in international relations.

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