Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Vali Kaleji said that what happened during the trilateral meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in Sochi was an agreement to establish a joint border commission to determine the borders between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, adding: After the Second Karabakh War, the Zangilan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions returned to the rule of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the withdrawal of the buffer zone caused the two countries to become neighbors in that region.

He added: In the past year, there have been several border tensions between the two countries, which led to the formation of a joint border commission. Of course, the meeting and the announcement of the formation of the commission was supposed to take place exactly on the anniversary of the signing of the Karabakh ceasefire agreement, i.e. November 10, but it seems that due to the serious sensitivities in Armenia, the agreement is a reminder of political and military failure of that country, Mr. Pashinyan decided to hold the meeting with a time interval.

Solving border problems takes more time

Recalling that the commission is set to resolve the dispute by the end of the year, the analyst of Central Asia and Caucasus affairs said: It is hard to believe that the dispute will be resolved within a month; what is unresolved in a year, how is it possible to be solved in a month? Therefore, it seems that solving those issues will take more time.

Kaleji continued: Mr. Putin’s remarks after the Sochi summit were more important than its statement. He said the differences were inherited from the Soviet era, implying that there was no clear demarcation from the Soviet era and that this issue should be addressed in the new era. Although he used the word “communication corridors”, he did not use the word “Zangezur”.

He added: Although Mr. Pashinyan had emphasized that the issue of the corridor would not be discussed at the Sochi meeting, it seems that there have been some talks about it and Mr. Putin used the word “communication corridors” to avoid causing sensitivity, especially inside Armenia. But eventually those communication corridors will be established between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan; but not under the term Zangezur.

The expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus affairs explained: The Armenian government is trying to determine the size of the corridor and will talk with the parties from what points it will pass, its ownership, the process of its control and security, whether being domestic or international, military or civilian, and rail or road. In particular, another meeting at the level of deputy prime minister is likely to be held in Moscow to discuss the details of the formation of a joint border commission.

Saying that if the two sides can move forward the case in the form of dialogue instead of clashes and war, it is in the interest of all parties so that the region does not face with tensions and border disputes again, he added: The Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia set demarcation in this important part of their border with a delay of 30 years compared to other Soviet republics.

Iran must be informed of agreements and approvals

Emphasizing that there is a minimum expectation that Iran will be informed of the agreements and approvals of the joint commission, he added: This expectation is Iran’s natural right; because what happened on the Goris-Kapan road showed that those border disputes could affect the Iranian transit route, or that if that corridor crosses adjacent to the Iranian border, it could be a threat to Iran-Armenia border.

The analyst of Central Asia and Caucasus affairs, saying that the Azeri, Russian and Turkish sides emphasis that the corridor is not a threat to the Iranian border, added: They should announce the decision in a transparent, formal and accurate manner. Iran’s knowledge of the resolutions and the negotiation process can build more trust in the region and reduce the severity of concerns about that route and the possible threat to Iran-Armenia border.

Kaleji stressed: In any case, this route should not be a threat to about 40 kilometers border of Iran; at the same time, approvals of the commission should not be a prelude to changing the geographical borders in the region. In fact, the geopolitical geography of the region should not change.

Need to increase ongoing regional consultations

Emphasizing the need to increase ongoing regional consultations in this regard and playing of a more active and dynamic role by the Iranian diplomacy, he said: Iran can assist the negotiation process in Karabakh talks, by stabilizing the border situation and establishing calm for future plans in the region, including implementation of Soviet railways in the Julfa region. It will definitely be in our interest to revive the transit route and the railways. Iran was the only country whose railway connection with the Caucasus was cut off during the First Karabakh War, and this connection has not existed for 30 years.

The expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus affairs, referring to Russia’s role in holding a joint border commission and talks between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Moscow-Tehran dispute over instances of geopolitical change in the region, added: Unfortunately, we do not yet know the details of the commission. If the commission is to resolve border disputes and implement Article 9 of the Karabakh ceasefire agreement and give the Republic of Azerbaijan access to Nakhchivan, there is no problem, but creating “Zangezur Corridor” on the basis of the request of the Republic of Azerbaijan, will be a cause of concern and unacceptability.

He added: The experience of the past three decades shows that removing Iran or ignoring it from regional agreements will not contribute to peace and stability in the region. We hope that this cooperation will be a basis for six-side cooperation in the Caucasus within the 3+3 framework.