Increased possibility of a ceasefire with the withdrawal of the Ukraine war from the agenda of the West

Strategic Council Online—Interview: An analyst of international issues said even though Russia's victory in the Ukraine war will mean the defeat of NATO and its credibility in Europe, the course of the war has now reached such a stage that the Westerners have no choice but to put pressure on Ukraine for a ceasefire and implement a peace agreement.

Seyyed Reza Mirtaher told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations that the developments of the last few months in the war in Ukraine, especially the apparent failure of offensives that Ukraine had promised in advance and which the West believed would be very successful, have now created a situation where the West is said to want to convince Kyiv to start negotiations with Russia to reach a ceasefire.

Mirtaher said while referring to Western media reports about secret negotiations between Washington and Kyiv to convince Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire and accept some of its terms.

He pointed to the US focus on the war between the Zionist regime and Hamas after the “Al-Aqsa Storm” operation in the Gaza Strip. He added that “this situation has naturally reduced the attention of the Biden government officials to the war in Ukraine, and this is a trend that is also happening in Europe at the same time. The coming into power of some leaders in Slovakia and the deterioration of relations between Ukraine and Poland have caused these two countries to cut off their military aid to Ukraine, and now we are witnessing a kind of gap between European countries in terms of continuing to send military and economic aid to Ukraine”.

This expert on international issues, recalling that the United States, as the world’s first military power, has sent tens of billions of dollars in arms aid to Ukraine, described the situation as complex for the European countries that had significantly reduced their military budgets in the post-Cold War environment, and have limited arms reserves and ammunition.

Mirtaher said that under such a situation, where no clear fate is predicted for the war, we are witnessing a significant decrease in public support for the continuation of aid to Ukraine among Western countries.

Referring to President Zelensky’s criticism of the decrease in attention to Ukraine after the war in Gaza and saying that the West has forgotten Ukraine, Mirtaher continued that from a military point of view, almost from June onwards, when counter-attacks against Ukraine began, within the last five-six months, the Ukrainians were practically unable to achieve significant military gains, and despite the massive arms assistance from the West, the result on the battlefield was disastrous. Now, the Russians claim that the Ukrainians have suffered at least 70,000 casualties and that at least half of the Western military equipment sent to Ukraine has been destroyed.

He stated that now, on the eve of the winter season, the power and potential of Ukraine’s counter-attacks have been reduced to a large extent. This situation has created an opportunity for the Russians to reorganize and consolidate their military and defense lines in the conflict areas to prepare for more effective military strikes, which is considered another weakness for Ukraine.

This expert on international issues called the outbreak of war in Gaza a breathing space in the international environment for Russia, as a result of which, the attention of governments and countries has been diverted from the war in Ukraine to Gaza and added that Russia, while during the war in Gaza, took the political and diplomatic initiative to some extent in international institutions, with a new movement, strongly weakened Ukraine’s position in the final round. The combination of these factors has led some Western countries to conclude that they should pressure the Ukrainians in the context of talks for a ceasefire and peace.

Mirtaher reminded that in the US, as the leading supporter of Ukraine, there is a significant dispute between the Republicans in Congress and the White House, and explained that before this, the Republicans had many protests about the considerable quantity and quality of the American military aid to Ukraine and wanted limited and conditional delivery of aid. “During the recent Gaza war, the Biden administration presented a $106 billion aid package to Congress, of which $14.3 billion is allocated to the Zionist regime and $61.7 billion to Ukraine. In a strange move, the Republicans independently passed the aid bill to the Zionist regime in the House of Representatives. Thus, contrary to the threat made by the Biden administration and the White House that Biden would veto the bill if passed independently, they took it forward.”

He continued that if this independent aid bill to the Zionist regime goes to the Senate, it will not be approved due to the majority of the Democrats in the Senate. If it is approved, Biden will veto it, as he promised. Therefore, now inside the US, there is a kind of dispute between the Republicans and the White House in the field of sending simultaneous military aid to the Israeli regime and Ukraine. Basically, the Republicans do not want the US aid to Ukraine to continue with the current situation.

Stating that for the first time in American history, the White House will veto the issue of providing aid to the Zionist regime, Mir Taher said that the Biden administration’s insistence that the war in Gaza and Ukraine should be viewed in the framework of a package and a single approach. Now, it has become a significant challenge inside the United States and the domestic political environment of this country, and it has made the Ukrainian government more disappointed with the United States. These conditions do not create a positive perspective for the Western-oriented government of Kyiv to continue the war with Russia. Sooner or later, they will conclude that they have to negotiate for peace with Russia in the current situation.

According to this expert on international issues, in this situation, there will be no discussion about the return of Crimea to Ukraine, and most likely, the Russians want to preserve their land gains, which includes about 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

Mirtaher said that the primary goal of the US was to weaken Russia, in general significantly weakening its economy by imposing about 13,000 sanctions on this country. After that, the US sought to weaken Russia’s military power and limit the national forces of this country in the war process. In any case, Russia’s victory in the Ukraine war will mean the defeat of NATO and its credibility in Europe Because NATO has not been able to stop Russia’s advances, and we will see a change in the geostrategic balance in Europe. Of course, this issue is not pleasant and tolerable for Westerners. But despite the desired goals of the West, the course of the war has now reached such a stage that the Westerners have no choice but to put pressure on Ukraine for a ceasefire and to implement a peace agreement.

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