Condemnation of the Israeli Regime and Power Equations in the Persian Gulf

Esfandyar Khodaei, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated: “The emergency meeting of the Security Council regarding the Israeli regime’s attack on Qatar ended with the issuance of a statement condemning this action and supporting Doha’s national sovereignty. Although this statement did not name the Israeli regime, its issuance was seen as a kind of display of Qatar’s power and an emphasis on its mediating role in regional crises.” According to this analyst, “This condemnation, although it may appear deterrent on the surface, the reality of the power scene in West Asia tells a different story.”

Khodaei emphasized that “a set of factors, including Qatar’s position as a mediator between Hamas and the Israeli regime, its extensive diplomatic influence, and the sympathy of Arab countries with it, have played a role in shaping this international reaction. Many Arab countries are worried that similar attacks will target other governments in the region.” This expert acknowledges that “The main concern is that the Israeli regime, with this approach, will pave the way for targeting other Arab countries; countries that may, in the future, adopt a critical or deterrent policy against Tel Aviv.”

However, he emphasizes that “experience has shown that the Israeli regime has even ignored international courts and global condemnations, and the United States also has no serious will to curb the actions of this regime.” From Khodaei’s perspective, “The Israeli regime’s reliance on the support of Washington and Donald Trump personally has provided the necessary space for the continuation of these policies, and international resolutions will, in practice, have limited deterrent effects.”

Influence of the Israeli Regime’s Lobby, the US Approach, and the Deterrent Options of Arab Countries

Khodaei believes that “recent events have shown that the Israeli regime’s lobby heavily influences Trump and his administration; a lobby that has significant influence over Congress, the Republican Party, and even the Democrats.” According to this senior international affairs analyst, “Even though many in Washington know that some of Tel Aviv’s actions are detrimental to US interests in West Asia, the pressure from the Israeli regime’s lobby causes the White House to act contrary to its strategic interests in some cases.”

Esfandyar Khodaei, in the continuation of his analysis, notes that “After Trump’s trip to West Asia several months ago and the signing of billion-dollar contracts with Qatar and other Arab countries, it was expected that Washington would be more sensitive to the security of its allies, but Tel Aviv’s influence has led to a more complex equation.” Therefore, he says: “On the surface, the US tries to maintain its relations with Arab countries and defend its interests in the Persian Gulf, but in practice, the influence of the Israeli regime on White House decisions conveys the message that the security of Arab allies may at times be sacrificed for Tel Aviv’s considerations.”

From this analyst’s perspective, “The current situation, especially after the Israeli regime’s aggression against Qatar, will push Arab countries towards diversifying their security and defense relations.” Referring to the experience of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in getting closer to Russia and China, he adds that “When Arab countries see that the US does not guarantee their security in critical times, it is natural for them to tend towards military and political cooperation with other powers. We have witnessed this same trend in Saudi Arabia’s recent relations with Moscow and Beijing.”

This senior international affairs analyst also reminds that “Even on issues such as decreasing or increasing oil production, some Arab governments have acted contrary to US demands and preferred to align their interests with other powers. These developments are a sign of a gradual change in the balance of power in West Asia; a change that the Israeli regime’s attack on Qatar and America’s cautious reaction could accelerate.”

A Show of Power or Real Deterrence?

Esfandyar Khodaei believes that “The condemnation of the Israeli regime in the Security Council, although it sends a clear political message to Tel Aviv and its supporters, can hardly be a deterrent in practice. The Israeli regime has shown in the past that it does not fear the international costs of its actions, and as long as Arab countries cannot give a decisive response, the repetition of such attacks is possible.”

However, he emphasizes that “These very condemnations can, in the long term, pave the way for changes in regional equations; changes that may be accompanied by a reduction in unconditional US support for Tel Aviv or an increase in cooperation between Arab countries and non-Western powers, as well as laying the groundwork for the possible formation of a regional security defense pact. Undoubtedly, Qatar, using its active diplomacy and mediating role, is trying to enhance its position in regional equations and turn this crisis into an opportunity to display its soft power.”