Morteza Makki – European Affairs Researcher

During this period, alongside the U.S. government’s consultations with Russia in several rounds of talks in Riyadh and Istanbul, European governments have become more determined to support Ukraine, approving new financial and military aid packages for Kyiv. The U.S. even transferred the leadership of the Western Contact Group, consisting of 50 countries assisting Ukraine, to the British government. Concurrently with the Western Contact Group’s efforts, European governments formed a new coalition called the “Friends of Ukraine” to attract more aid for Kyiv.

The U.S. failure to bring Ukrainian and Russian perspectives closer to ending the war created maneuvering space for European governments to play a more active role in ceasefire negotiations. Consequently, we have witnessed more explicit and serious stances from European governments, particularly France, the UK, and Germany, toward Russia. The visits of the French president, German chancellor, British prime minister, and Polish prime minister to Kyiv sent a strong signal to Moscow that if it does not accept a 30-day ceasefire, it will face extensive economic and financial sanctions—sanctions that would impose new restrictions on the Russian Central Bank and other financial institutions’ access to the SWIFT system.

A key point regarding European governments’ consultations and moves is their effort to align with Trump in forming a united front against Russia. European leaders in Kyiv held a phone call with the U.S. president, sharing their views and positions on Russia and the ceasefire deadline. European governments are well aware that without the U.S., they cannot actively manage the Ukraine crisis. Washington is the pillar of NATO, and without America, European countries have little leverage against Russia.

On the other hand, in response to European political moves, Vladimir Putin, during a phone call with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, expressed his readiness to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul. The Ukrainian president welcomed Putin’s proposal, calling it a step forward. However, Zelensky ruled out any negotiations with Russia without a declared 30-day ceasefire.

Russia has reacted cautiously to the European governments’ ceasefire ultimatum. Trump’s stance on these developments suggests that Russia accepting a 30-day ceasefire is not far-fetched. Over the past two months, despite Trump’s willingness to grant Moscow significant concessions regarding Crimea’s recognition and occupied eastern Ukrainian territories, Russia has effectively thwarted all of Trump’s political moves. Putin’s excessive insistence on his maximalist goals in Ukraine could bridge the gap between the U.S. and Europe, bringing Trump closer to European governments.

On Sunday, May 10, Trump declared a “big day for Russia and Ukraine,” supporting European and Ukrainian governments’ positions on unconditional negotiations and accepting a ceasefire.

Given the stances and political moves of key players in the Ukraine crisis, it appears Russia is under significant pressure to continue the war. Putin had sought to formalize Crimea’s annexation and eastern Ukrainian territories before any ceasefire. However, if he agrees to unconditional talks and a 30-day ceasefire, he would effectively lose control over negotiations, as this ceasefire could pave the way for a fragile compromise and an armed peace between Russia and the West.

European governments also see no clear prospects in relations with Russia; thus, if they can establish a temporary and permanent ceasefire, they hope to maintain the sanctions regime against Moscow. As a result, it seems Russia cannot easily escape these severe economic sanctions without making concessions in Ukraine.