Amin Parto – Expert on Middle East Issues

The first group includes the countries that support the new rulers of Syria and side with Turkey’s political and intellectual line. Qatar and Libya (the Government of National Accord, which rules in Tripoli and is recognized as Libya’s legal representative in the international community) are in this group.

The second group is the countries that are strongly opposed to the Islamist currents and the Muslim Brotherhood and oppose the political and intellectual line of Turkey and its allies, namely Qatar and the Government of National Accord in Libya. The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Algeria, and the legal government of Sudan (the military government of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan) are part of this group. Of course, some countries on the Persian Gulf coast, such as Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait, are also on the fringes of this view.

These countries had re-established official political relations with Syria a few years ago. They were trying to support Bashar al-Assad because they considered his Islamist opponents a threat to themselves.

For example, Egypt established warm relations with Syria during the Syrian Civil War and after Sisi came to power in Cairo. In addition to providing limited arms and ammunition to the Bashar al-Assad government (mainly light weapons and mortar ammunition), it also offered political and intelligence support to the Assad government. Egypt had also established secret communications with the Syrian Kurds against Turkey.

In addition to opposing the Muslim Brotherhood, the UAE also competed with Turkey on regional issues. It worked against the rise of political forces close to Turkey and Qatar in Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt.

The third group of Arab states are countries that are critical of Turkey’s political policy in Syria and feel threatened by it, but at the same time, do not seek to confront Turkey actively. Of course, these countries have diverse political positions within themselves. For example, Saudi Arabia is not aligned with the Islamist movements that have taken hold in Syria. Still, if these movements are brought under control and do not pose a threat to Saudi Arabia, it will be willing to cooperate with them and provide financial assistance for the reconstruction of Syria.

Although countries such as Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon feel a strong threat from the political transformation that has occurred in Syria, they are currently happy with the guarantees and support of the United States and Turkey. Because there is a possibility of the spread of anti-Shiite Sunni movements from Syria to Iraq and Lebanon, the current political course of the rulers of Damascus and the pressures from Turkey and the United States will prevent them from actively transforming towards Sunniism. Another group of countries are Djibouti, Somalia, Mauritania, Tunisia, Palestine, and Yemen, whose positions on the Syrian issue are not at all influential.

Since the global will, especially from the United States and Europe, is for the war and instability in Syria to end and the process of returning refugees and rebuilding the country to begin, even countries that oppose the new rulers of Damascus will be cautious in their positions for a while.