By increasing its military budget while increasing military and defense cooperation with India and signing a $41 million contract to purchase anti-drone equipment and training military personnel, Armenia is becoming one of India’s biggest importers of military weapons.

Yerevan has also signed agreements with France to import various military equipment. In this regard, Paris has announced that it will provide short—and medium-range missiles, as well as other equipment, to Armenia if it declares its need. Soren Papikian, Armenia’s Minister of Defense, has also said that there are no restrictions on Armenia’s defense cooperation with other countries.

Armenia’s military cooperation with foreign countries has increased, while Yerevan recently withdrew from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. At the same time, some European leaders have demanded Armenia’s membership in NATO.

The government of Azerbaijan is negotiating with Pakistan to purchase an unknown number of fourth-generation JF-17 fighter jets equipped with advanced radar and weapon systems in an unprecedented contract worth 1.5 billion euros.

The price of this aircraft is 23 million euros, and according to the relevant contract, Azerbaijan is supposed to modernize its entire fleet of military aircraft by purchasing approximately 60 JF-17C Block III jets.

According to the above process, there are points to consider, the most important of which are addressed below:

The first point: The experience of the previous wars over Karabakh and the border conflicts of the warring parties, which mainly have military and security dimensions, play a “prominent role” in intensifying Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s military purchases and cooperation with other countries. This trend has actually become an “opportunity” for the extra-regional countries to turn the South Caucasus into an arena for expanding their lucrative military and equipment sales.

For example, as two rival countries, India and Pakistan seek to secure their economic and political interests in this important region through military cooperation with the South Caucasus.

Regarding the efforts of France and NATO to expand their influence in the South Caucasus, it should be emphasized that filling the geopolitical vacuum affected by the conflicts of Yerevan-Baku in the past few years, competition with Turkey, countering the influence and military and security presence of Russia in the Caucasus in the form of NATO strategy, are among the important goals in this field.

The second point is that Armenia and Azerbaijan pursue different goals, from developing military cooperation with countries outside the region. Development of weapons arsenals, modernization of military infrastructure and equipment, diversification of military equipment supply sources, reduction of costs caused by military reliance on one or more limited and specific countries, as well as increasing “bargaining power” in political negotiations with the support of military power, are among the common goals of two countries in this field.

In this connection, Armenia, with the experiences of the recent conflicts over Karabakh, has announced that Yerevan’s dependence on Russia only in terms of security and military is a “strategic mistake” and has recently signed an arms contract with India and France. Azerbaijan has also signed a cooperation agreement with Pakistan to modernize its air force, which relies on old Russian fighters.

It is worth noting that military superiority has been the most important component of Baku’s victory in the conflicts of the last few years against Armenia.

The third point: Most of the military conflicts in the South Caucasus have their roots in the “Karabakh conflict.” Therefore, sporadic or full-scale war and conflict in the South Caucasus was consistent and probable as long as Karabagh was occupied. Still, with the liberation of Karabakh, evidence of a serious and widespread war in this region does not seem as likely as before. Therefore, intensifying the “militarization” process in the South Caucasus lacks justification and realistic components unless done with the “incitement” of extra-regional factors and for the benefit of foreign actors.

Last point

It is natural to strengthen countries’ infrastructure and military supplies, especially when there are real external threats. Still, when this issue takes an unnatural course and is based on unrealistic and ambitious calculations, it will have negative consequences.

In addition to expanding military expenses and increasing economic problems, expanding or fueling instability and insecurity is one of the important consequences in this field, which primarily affects the countries of this area, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan. Western countries, contrary to their declared policies, never seek lasting peace, stability, and security in the South Caucasus, a region that is geopolitically, geoeconomically, and geostrategically special and plays an important role in the foreign policy of countries outside the region, including America and Europe.