Seyed Reza Mir Taher, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the US effort to increase Taiwan’s strategic weapons and China’s warnings about the consequences of the arms race created in the region and the US effort to support Taiwan’s political positions and independence-seeking in that region, and said: Sending arms to Taiwan and strengthening it in terms of armaments is one of the foundations of such Washington policy.

While reviewing the high amount of weapons sent to Taiwan during the terms of different US presidents, he continued: Only during the Trump era 18 billion dollars of weapons were sold to Taiwan, and even though the Biden government claimed that it would sell a maximum of 2.2 billion dollars weapons to Taiwan, recent reports show that Washington plans to sell about 19 billion dollars of weapons to Taiwan.

Referring to the dispatch of various types of anti-ship missiles and advanced types of new air-to-air missiles for the F-16V fighters of the Taiwan Air Force, the international affairs expert said: Now the issue of sending large quantities of HIMARS rocket-missile systems to Taiwan has been raised, which has been put at the disposal of the Ukraine army by Washington. Those systems have shown significant performance during the Ukraine war, and considering that the Taiwanese think that they will face a similar scenario in Ukraine, they are pursuing receiving such weapons. 

Saying that the US has based its policy towards Taiwan on two pillars, Mir Taher noted that the first pillar is the provision of various political and security supports. Referring to the visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives to Taiwan and the visit of the president of Taiwan to California, he explained: Beijing, while vehemently protesting, held very unprecedented and extensive air and sea exercises around the island of Taiwan.

He considered providing various types of military-weaponry aid to Taiwan as the second foundation of the US policy towards the island. He added: The US wants to increase its military preparedness to deal with any possible military attack from China. Of course, the Taiwanese are aware that they cannot resist any possible air, sea, amphibious, or missile attack by China on that island. Therefore, since long ago, the United States has committed itself to defend the island of Taiwan within the framework of the treaties and agreements it has concluded with the island of Taiwan.

Mir Taher said that the activities of the US Navy and conducting exercises in the South China Sea in response to China’s air and naval exercises around the island of Taiwan, especially in the Taiwan Strait, indicates Washington’s determination to defend this island against any possible military attack by China.

Stating that Western experts, including Americans, have two different views on China’s possible attack on Taiwan in the light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the international affairs analyst added: Some believe that due to the results of the war in Ukraine and capture of four provinces of that country by Russia has created a double incentive for Chinese leaders to take similar action against Taiwan, and another group believes that Russia’s huge human, military, and equipment costs due to the attack on Ukraine and the uncertain prospects of the war, has destroyed the motivation among Chinese leaders to intend to militarily re-integrate Taiwan into mainland China.

At the same time, he stated: Despite the severe political tensions between Taiwan and China, the economic relations between the two are very extensive. China is considered Taiwan’s largest trading partner, and in 2021, Taiwan’s largest exports, with a figure of over 60 percent, were made to China.

Mir Taher, reminding that Taiwan produces more than 60 percent of semiconductor chips in the world, and any attack on it can cause a severe crisis in the global economy and industry, especially in the electronics and telecommunication equipment sector, noted: There are many inhibiting factors that the Chinese want to attack Taiwan immediately.

The expert on international affairs emphasized: The Chinese have intelligently realized that the US measures must be accompanied by proportionate reactions to make them fully understand that Beijing will not sit idly by the expansion of US-Taiwan relations and the increasing dispatch of US weapons to Taiwan and will cause appropriate reactions.

According to Mir Taher, In the 21st century, the largest area enjoying international importance is the Asia-Pacific area. A confrontation between the United States and China in this region, within the framework of the general confrontation between Washington and Beijing, is to take over global leadership, the most critical challenge this region will experience in the current century. According to predictions, at the latest, China will become the world’s largest economy by 2030. This issue, and the significant increase in China’s military capabilities and the very extensive and ambitious projects that Chinese leaders have to expand their military in various fields, will undoubtedly transform Asia-Pacific into one of the possible points of aggression and tension in the world.

Saying that the US has learned lessons from the experience of Ukraine in terms of increasing military power and logistics issues, he continued: It remains to be seen whether the US will resort to military power to limit China’s power or whether such tensions will continue in a continuous and chronic political, economic and commercial way. As the process of sanctioning Chinese companies has intensified, Washington is trying to find new steps to reduce dependence on China, especially in advanced electronic products such as integrated circuits or semiconductor chips, by producing them in the United States.

At the same time, Mir Taher said: Although the Chinese are basically not looking for military tension towards Taiwan for several reasons, Beijing will try as much as possible through other means at its disposal, and by putting pressure on Taiwan, it will finally achieve its ultimate goal, that is to say rejoining that island to its original land.

The analyst of international affairs said: In other areas, especially in the South China Islands, due to the construction of residential islands by China and the maritime claims around them, which are not accepted by the United States and its regional allies, such as Australia, the Philippines, or even Malaysia and others, there will undoubtedly be a risk of some military conflicts in this region between the naval and air units of China and the United States and its allies.