In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Farhad Vafaei Fard, referred to the terrorist acts that ISIS has carried out in Iraq in the past weeks and the warnings of domestic and international authorities regarding the movements of the group, adding: To analyze such acts, it is necessary to pay attention to those acts at domestic, regional and international levels. At the internal level ISIS, considering that the previous leader of the group, Abu Hassan al-Hashemi, was killed and a person named Abu Hussein al-Husseini declared caliphate, parts of those movements are the result of internal changes and operational requirements for the new leader, so to speak, fresh blood will flow in the veins of the group.

He added: In the tactical field, we are also witnessing the operation that happened recently, mostly through the explosion of bombs near the headquarters of the Iraqi police and security forces such as in Kirkuk and north of Baghdad, and generally speaking, ISIS moves in this direction during periods when it is not possible to seize territory.

Referring to the effects of Iraq’s internal developments and regional issues on the recent movements of ISIS, the expert on Iraq affairs said: It is about a few months that we have been witnessing signs of unrest in some countries in the region, including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. Security and economic aspects are seriously observed in those protests. The increase in the price of the dollar in those countries during the past weeks, livelihood problems, lack of fuel and electricity and the resulting protests have effects on the security field, and the creation of security gaps causes unrest. Popular protests can be a platform for terrorist groups to infiltrate.

Vafaei Fard continued: In Iraq, most of the operations that ISIS or its dormant cells have carried out during this period have occurred in the provinces where we have witnessed the differences between the security forces and the Iraqi army and regional forces. Naturally, such differences will cause security gaps, and the evidence shows that this process continues and may even be more widespread in Iraq.

Referring to the effects of international developments on the movements of ISIS, he pointed out: In every period when the democrats come to power in the United States, developments such as chaos, color revolution, and intensification of the activities of terrorist groups are seen more often in the target countries, especially in the West Asian region. In addition, due to the growing relations that China and Russia pursue with the countries of this region, it seems that the possibility of creating tension and crisis in our region will increase and instability will intensify. We see examples of such instability in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and considering the state of the government in Lebanon, there is a prospect of instability in that country as well.

The analyst of Iraq affairs explained: In a situation where the US is bound to reduce some of its obligations towards the countries of the region, due to the growing relations and the presence of China and Russia in this region, the tendency of a country that goes towards reducing obligations, increases for creating crisis in order to be able to take advantage of opportunities and create challenges for emerging players in the region.

Referring to the consequences of ISIS movements in Iraq, Vafaei Fard said: After several months, a new government has been installed in Iraq and relative peace has been established in that country. The Prime Minister has implemented reforms and has made progress during this period as well; but it seems that we cannot hope for calm days in the future of Iraq. Naturally, the repetition of terrorist operations and movements of groups like ISIS slows down the process of economic reforms in Iraq. The government in Iraq is not very powerful, and when it has to spend part of its power in the field of security, there will be inadequacies in other fields.

He added: The new prime minister is looking for changes in Iraq and purging and replacing the security-intelligence forces. He is trying to remove people and groups who were close to the former prime minister from important security-military positions. In this situation, terrorist movements will have a negative effect on this process.

The expert on Iraq affairs emphasized that intensification of insecurity will cause intensification of dissatisfaction, and continued: In addition to such issues, increase in the price of basic goods and food for the people also brings the politics to street in Iraq and various forces, including Moqtada Sadr’s supporters, will return to the scene again. This issue can create a new crisis for Iraq.

Referring to the US-Iraq relations and the issues raised regarding the withdrawal of American military forces from Iraq, Vafaei Fard said: Continuation of such security movements can be a platform for the new government to give concessions to the US. As a rule, during the forthcoming visit of the Iraqi prime minister to Washington, the issue of completing the process of withdrawal of the US operational forces, which has been raised again in Iraq, will be discussed. Therefore, the areas of friction between the interests of the United States and Iraq are many, and perhaps no country is in this position. Naturally, any internal weakness can have negative effects on the maneuvering power of a government in external fields.

Regarding the possibility of inciting terrorist groups by domestic and foreign players to make the government appear ineffective and increase dissatisfaction with its performance, he said: Naturally, in a society like Iraq where the government is the result of consultation and empowerment of political groups, when some groups are left out of power, there is the possibility that they will obstruct the success of the government. But in the current situation, it is not possible to see such provocations from internal groups. Because the Kurds are present in the government and have received significant concessions, and the “oil and gas law” debate is also progressing. The Sunnis have not yet reached the conclusion that they want to take measures against the government.

At the same time, the expert on Iraq affairs emphasized: Foreign parties can be involved in increasing the movements of ISIS, and there is a possibility that the US approach towards increasing tensions and instability in Iraq will not be negative.