Farshad Adel – Secretary General of Iran-China Strategic Studies Institute

It should not be forgotten that Assad was considered a reliable friend of China. For this reason, China used its right to veto UN Security Council resolutions critical of the Assad government 10 times. China has been Syria’s largest economic partner since 2019, and by 2022, the volume of trade between the two countries had reached more than $415 million. In September 2023, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited China for the first time since the country’s 12-year crisis, and following the visit, officials from the two countries announced their strategic partnership.

Therefore, the fall of the Assad government is considered an unpleasant event for China, which alone affects China’s interests in West Asia; but what can be viewed as a significant threat to China more than anything else is the prominent role of Uyghur fighters on the other front. The association of a large number of rebels known as the “Islamic Party of Turkestan” with the Tahrir al-Sham Board in the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad government was a special event that occurred in Syria and set off alarm bells in Beijing; because the Uyghurs were among the most important foreign armed groups that played a role in the recent developments in Syria, and according to the statements of “Imad Mustafa”, the then Syrian ambassador to China, more than five thousand Uyghur militias were organized in Idlib by 2017.

In promotional videos released by the Turkestan Islamic Party, it is promised that the scope of this group’s terrorist activities will expand to China’s Xinjiang province. In this regard, Abdulhaq Turkestani, the commander of the Turkestan Islamic Party terrorist group, called on Uyghurs around the world to join the fight against the Assad regime and China. In his message, he said, “Today we are helping our brothers to wage jihad in Syria, and tomorrow our soldiers must be ready to return to China to liberate Xinjiang from the occupiers.”

Although the activities of the Turkestan Islamic Party in China and neighboring regions have decreased significantly, the existence of numerous reports about the organization and training of this terrorist group in Syria, which has also gained real combat experience, is considered a potential threat from China that could lead to the spread of terrorism in regions such as Central Asia and spread insecurity within China’s borders.

According to reliable reports, the Turkestan Islamic Party is recruiting from the Uyghur communities of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia. It has formed an informal alliance with the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan to provide the necessary grounds for damaging China’s interests, including projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, despite the good relations between the Taliban and China, it should not be forgotten that the Taliban’s rule over Afghanistan is not accompanied by complete dominance and that the country hosts inactive cells of the Turkestan Islamic Party, and there is a possibility of their reactivation.

Accordingly, it can be said that the collapse of the Assad government in Syria could act as a catalyst for the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world, and this threat to China from the Uyghur terrorists is also highly prominent. In such circumstances, Turkey’s role as the most important state sponsor of armed groups opposing the Assad government in Syria is an issue that is carefully examined and monitored by China Because, given its support for the anti-China Uyghurs and their organization in Idlib, it could play a key role in the group’s future threats against China. Also, political initiatives such as the establishment of the Council of Turkic States, which will ultimately lead to an increase in Turkey’s playing power in Central Asia and the regions adjacent to China’s Xinjiang Province, will increase its responsibility for anti-security developments in these regions, and this, if mismanaged, could lead to serious challenges in China-Turkey relations. In such circumstances, security and counterterrorism consultations between China, Iran, Russia, and Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan, are an issue that should be on the agenda of these countries.

Also, expanding China’s investments in Central Asian infrastructure and defining platforms for joint and multilateral cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan, and Russia, under initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, global security, and global development, could lead to development and prosperity in China’s neighboring regions and eliminate the grounds for the emergence of extremism and terrorism.