In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council Foreign Relations regarding the recent statements of the Russian President, who announced the possibility of changing his country’s nuclear doctrine during his official visit to Vietnam, Mahmoud Shouri said: The use of nuclear capability after the war in Ukraine was emphasized by Russian leaders because the country was trying to show off its deterrence capability in the nuclear field to the big powers supporting Ukraine, but at the current stage, Russia’s goal is not to threaten the West by relying on the use of nuclear weapons or changing the nuclear doctrine, but rather create a deterrent to prevent the West from sending advanced military weapons to Ukraine.

He stated that Russia is extremely upset and worried about the supply of advanced military equipment from the West to Ukraine, and we have seen part of this concern in the recent positions of the authorities of this country. The analyst said: “Russia is concerned about the military weapons that have been given to Ukraine or in the future, it will be available to this country. It is worried and has warned many times that it is not clear whether the missiles that are supplied to Ukraine can be upgraded to a nuclear missile or not, and they consider it a possible nuclear threat. Therefore, with the recent positions, they want to preempt and warn the West about the consequences of this decision.

The expert on international issues noted that the West might equip Kyiv with advanced military and missile equipment because of the Ukraine war with Russia. Still, the problem of the West, especially the United States, is not necessarily within the framework of war and its interactions and consequences but can have wider dimensions. Therefore, Russia is trying to make the West understand the dimensions of its decisions regarding Ukraine, which may even change Russia’s approach to using nuclear weapons, which has been constant for decades.

Shouri said: Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly warned European countries and the United States that they should not supply weapons to Ukraine that are openly considered a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity, even if this is done under the pretext of a war between Ukraine and Russia.

This expert on international issues stated: The recent positions of Putin and other Russian officials regarding the possibility of changing the country’s nuclear doctrine. At the same time, there is a lot of pressure from the United States and Europe against Moscow, which is a warning to prevent the escalation of the war with Ukraine, which the United States and Europe seriously support.

Referring to Russia’s military and financial problems as well as the tightening of sanctions against this country, he said Russia can keep its current situation as it is. Still, if the West wants to escalate the war in Ukraine by increasing and Extending sanctions and sending advanced military weapons, Russia will change its view on the issue. It is not unlikely that it will even take uncontrollable measures to prevent any decisive attack by Ukraine.

Shouri said: “Since the beginning of the war, Russia has emphasized that it is ready to use its nuclear capacity if the balance of the war is upset.” Russia has no reason to put itself in a position to make its next steps predictable while under intense pressure from the West. If the West and the United States want to raise the level of the war in Ukraine, the situation will become unpredictable. Naturally, Russia does not want to suffer a fatal blow from the United States and Europe to Ukraine. Therefore, these approaches and threats affect the behavior of the involved parties and are one of the important reasons for the change in Russia’s approach to its nuclear doctrine.

He said about the possibility of Donald Trump taking office in the upcoming US elections and the possible change of this country’s policy towards Ukraine: this is an issue that will affect the future of the war in Ukraine because Trump’s policies on Russia and Ukraine are different from Biden’s policy. Maybe Russia’s positions should not be unrelated to possible future events in America. Russia sent this message to Trump, stating it was prepared for the worst scenarios. On the other hand, the United States must carefully monitor this change of approach by Russia, but it is unlikely that Trump will want to raise the level of the war in Ukraine.