In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Pirouz Ghofrani referred to the importance of the application of artificial intelligence in diplomacy and foreign relations and stated: In the past 50 years, two global trends have been created, both of which are related to data, on the other hand, the volume of data has increased considerably and expansion of communications has made data exchange easier, and on the other hand, and more importantly, data management software and technologies have taken on a more important and effective role in the past few decades.

He added: This trend has made data-based decision-making essential. In this situation, what data should constitute the basis for decision-making, what type should be accepted and refined, which should be ignored, looked at with doubt, or which should be deferred to finding more evidence and clues has become critical. In addition, it is necessary to analyze how to categorize these data, including non-deterministic and other data.

He added: The high volume of data and the speed of formation of new technologies and paradigms have made humankind unable to predict everything in advance and determine the future path with certainty. Uncertainty has dramatically increased, and globalization, the development of communication, and the increase of emerging crises and phenomena make us unable, in many cases, to accurately analyze what scenarios may be formed in the future. Technology, as one of the critical drivers of change and the connection of technologies with each other and the creation of new paradigms due to the impact and mutual influence of technologies, has strongly affected this issue, that is, the unpredictability of developments.

The managing director of Sharif Innovation Development and Trade Campus stated that uncertainties had caused a new issue in management under the title of Scenario Based Decision Making be raised, which, based on the data and their analysis and the knowledge of the subject and the possibilities that may be imagined about the types of interpretation of the subject, various scenarios are examined, adding: In this process, preparation for different scenarios is essential. The human mind fills the information blind spots with available information, which can be the basis of the following error in decision-making. This is where the difference in decisions becomes clear.

Ghofrani continued: Differences in perceptions and errors caused by mental biases and news formatting, errors caused by mischief, falsification of news and rumors of the enemy, and other errors that prevent correct human interpretation may remove some scenarios from analysts’ minds and limit decision-making options. One of the methods of shaping the minds of the general public and even the minds of experts is to use the cognitive biases of the audience, which have been highly paid attention to in recent years. Even the issue of cognitive warfare has been used as one of the fields of war in the operational areas of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for several years.

The former diplomat added: This is where artificial intelligence and quantum processing can help the decision-making and scenario-writing process. These technologies can process many scenarios that were ignored due to cognitive errors, haste, and elimination of possibilities due to being considered far from the mind in designing information interpretation options and better decision bases. Regardless of human cognitive errors, artificial intelligence can analyze all imaginable opportunities and the costs and benefits of each and introduce the best modes by examining different modes while considering the costs and benefits.

Reminding that the discussion about the dangers of artificial intelligence is because it considers the possibility of options that humans have not seen, he said: Artificial intelligence cannot accept human logic due to what it considers not to see some correct options and even consider its options for action to be superior. Quantum processing allows simultaneous analysis of different scenarios at a much higher speed. Combining quantum processing with artificial intelligence can introduce different scenarios into the decision-making model, which experts may have ignored while paying attention to other options and examining them.

The former Iranian diplomat emphasized that these technologies’ sensitivity is definitely higher in foreign relations, where decisions are multi-dimensional and influenced by many factors. Decision-making in foreign relations requires high analysis and processing power, correct and accurate classification of information, access to information, including confidential and undisclosed information, and avoidance of mental filters and cognitive errors.

Ghofrani pointed out: If artificial intelligence and learning machines are correctly programmed, they will make the least mistakes in this regard, and in this case, we can expect them to see different scenarios, and their logic should not be affected by taste, daily moods, emotions, and anger or lack of knowledge.

He added: Therefore, due to the increase of unpredictable phenomena and the uncertainties of the future world, the application of new technologies of knowledge management and information processing, including artificial intelligence and quantum processing, can increase the ability of any system to make decisions should be taken into consideration in institutions in charge of foreign relations, diplomacy, and macro policy making.