Analysis of China’s Peace Proposal Regarding the Ukraine War

2023/03/22 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online - Opinion: The Ukraine war put China in a complicated situation. This means it was difficult for Beijing to adopt a position that would not alienate Russia and, at the same time, lead to the management of relations with the West. Accordingly, over the past year, Beijing has not criticized Russia seriously. Still, at the same time, it has refused to provide support to Russia that would be a game-changer, including the transfer of weapons. In return, it has criticized the West, including on the issue of NATO expansion. Mohammad Javad Ghahremani - Researcher of China affairs

On February 24, Chinese officials put forward a 12-point proposal, based on which China’s approach to the Ukraine crisis and its targets can be analyzed.

At first glance, it seems that the Chinese intend to present their desired global governance model, which contrasts with how the United States is considered the flag bearer. The “global security initiative” concept has already manifested this issue. This proposal shows the principles and goals of the United Nations Charter, the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the reference, and abandonment of the Cold War mentality, etc. In this concept, there are issues such as commitment to common and stable security, support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, the centrality of the United Nations, prevention of nuclear war, etc. Overall, China is presenting a model of governance that at least implicitly rebukes current global governance.

The content of China’s proposed plan considers the crisis related to Europe. This proposal has spoken about the necessity of cooperation of all parties to shape a balanced, efficient, and stable European security architecture. China is worried about the international description of this, so it will spread to other regions, especially its peripheral regions.

From the Chinese point of view, the image of a peace-making China at the same time reduces fear of others in Beijing. Mentioning China’s willingness to play a constructive role in the proposal also indicates Beijing’s desire to present itself as a responsible great power, which means accepting responsibility towards the international community. In this way, Beijing can also portray its ability to lead the future of the global system.

Stability is the central issue for advancing China’s foreign policy agenda. One of the topics raised in the document is the need for the parties to try to prevent the crisis from getting worse and out of control. Although the Ukraine crisis initially led to a decreased concentration of the United States in the Asia-Pacific, from the Chinese point of view, with increasing pressure from the West or Russia’s failures in the field, it may lead to bold action by Moscow, including the use of nuclear weapons (which in China’s peace proposal its preventing has been emphasized) which means a severe increase in the level of crisis. This issue brings the international system into a stage incompatible with China’s desire to achieve a superior position in the global system. Also, Russia’s defeat increases the US’s self-confidence in facing China.

In addition to the cases mentioned above, weakening and questioning the legitimacy of sanctions as a tool of the United States in pressuring other countries is always one of the critical issues mentioned in the peace proposal because China has become one of its targets. According to them, only sanctions are enforceable and legitimate, planned and approved by the United Nations Security Council.

In sum, China’s peace proposal emphasizes the country’s attitude towards the Ukraine crisis and, of course, on a higher level, the existing international order. Although the Ukrainian side has not rejected it, the US has not welcomed it. One of the most important reasons is that this peace proposal somehow includes severe criticism of the United States. Also, the Americans do not consider China neutral in the war, but they believe it to be a supporter of Russia. By rejecting this proposal, they also question the legitimacy of China’s position. This issue will not be logically acceptable to the US. Finally, looking at China’s mediating records and, of course, the way the US deals with that country, including raising issues such as the possibility of transferring weapons to Russia, or lack of serious will on the sides of the war, it isn’t easy to accept that peace proposal and its effectiveness. In addition to the points mentioned above, playing the role of a mediator will increase China’s credibility in the international system as a great power.

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