Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Jafar Khashe, referred to the news published regarding the agreement between the leaders of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia on the formation of a technical working group to mark the borders of the two countries as well as construction of a railway to Nakhchivan, said: Negotiations for a working group and talks between the two sides have been made with the centrality of Russia, and after holding meetings at various levels, the foreign minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan announced that the country is ready to start the border demarcation process without any preconditions.

Referring to the history of border talks between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the regions above Karabakh, which has led to the demarcation of the border, he added: There are problems in demarcating the border between most of the former Soviet republics and not only between those two countries; of course, the demarcation of the borders of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the Karabakh region was also postponed due to the conflict, and now each has a different interpretation of the demarcation of the borders.

The analyst of the Caucasus affairs continued: According to the public opinion and media of the two countries, the Armenians emphasize on the borders that the two countries had in 1926, but the Republic of Azerbaijan is more looking for the borders that they had in 1974 in the Soviet Union. During those periods, areas between the two countries were relocated by the Soviets in the form of the central government of Moscow, and now each has its own interpretation.

Russia’s role in two countries’ talks

Khashe said: There is no definite position on which borders will be the final basis, and this issue depends on the negotiations of the committees that have been formed. Of course, Russia also plays an important role as a successor to the Soviet Union, as those countries do not have a history of basing the functions of their governments in order to determine their borders and should return to the Soviet-era maps.

Saying that the EU seems to be willing to take an active part in the talks, he referred to a meeting with the president of the Council of Europe and the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Brussels and noted: After that meeting, with the issuance of a statement, the agreement on the revival of the Soviet-era railway was announced. However, now the management of this issue and all the levers are at the disposal of Russia.

Recalling Iran’s red lines regarding border changes and the region’s geopolitics, the head of the Caucasus Studies Foundation stressed the need to pay attention to the position of water resources, especially the lake which is located in the Armenian territory but is besieged by the Republic of Azerbaijan and stressed: However, in terms of international law, demarcation of the borders is related to the two countries of Azerbaijan Republic and Armenia, but due to the possibility of affecting the borders of Iran and Armenia, Tehran is also involved, politically and legally, with the talks which can affect Iran’s interests and security.

Unacceptability of “Zangezur” fake corridor

Referring to the major goals and plans of Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the region, the Zionist regime’s attempts to infiltrate it, as well as the weight of the Armenian negotiations in the talks with regard to the internal pressure on the government, clarified on the possibility of the formation of such talks and their continuation and said: Approach of the two sides in those negotiations is somehow different. The plan on the fake “Zangezur” corridor is not acceptable due to its historical background, and the Republic of Azerbaijan cannot legally make such a claim.

He explained: Historically, there is no such a corridor, and legally, some media and political figures of the Republic of Azerbaijan state that in return for the “Lachin” corridor that the Republic of Azerbaijan has given to Armenia to connect with Karabakh, the Zangezur corridor should be given to Baku but such a claim is not legally valid; because the Lachin corridor is temporary and its legal status will change over the next five years, according to a November 10, 2020 statement.

The expert on the Caucasus affairs continued: It is clear now that the maximum demands of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey which were aimed at exercising sovereignty over the south of Armenia cannot be realized. They have also concluded that neither the Islamic Republic of Iran will allow its international borders to be changed and its ties with Armenia be cut off, nor will other countries such as Russia will support the plan.

At the same time, Khashe said: Armenia does not oppose to the whole plan of transportation lines, provided it establishes its sovereignty over the transportation lines, but is willing to be able to exercise its will to cut or maintain those lines by establishing a customs station and not losing its sovereignty over its territory.

He added that Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia are pursuing de-escalation and normalization of relations, noting: The fact that which side can achieve its demands by creating more pressure levers in the talks is a matter of their military and bargaining power. In addition to Russia, Armenia is trying harder to give France an acting power, and the European Union’s efforts in this regard are not in vain.

The head of the Caucasus Studies Foundation, stressing that the international atmosphere does not allow the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkey to occupy southern Armenia by force and by relying on military force, added: Russia, in the talks, by welcoming the opening of transportation lines, seeks to play a role in ensuring the security of those lines. Moscow has the same approach towards transportation lines in southern Armenia and wants to maintain security of the lines in that region.

Possibility of reopening of transportation lines

Khashe predicted: If something unexpected does not happen, there is a possibility that the communication lines will be reopened under the control and supervision of Russian forces. In this regard, Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan will also deviate from their ambitious demands, because the interests of other countries do not require them to pursue such targets.

Pointing to the importance of Iran’s connection to Russia and Yerevan via the rail way, he considered the opening of the Iranian consulate in Armenia’s Syunik Province as a strategic decision and said: All current actors support the process of starting negotiations to open the transportation lines, because their interests do not contradict with such process.