Causes & Consequences of the West Inaction versus Ukraine Crisis

2022/03/02 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Russia Affairs stated that imposition of new economic sanctions, transfer of crisis into Russia, and increasing costs of Moscow in Ukraine are among the issues in the U.S. and NATO agenda. She said:” Kiev expectation of the European Union and NATO was unrealistic because it was merely based on their political and their verbal positions, and Ukraine was entrapped in the present crisis based on these unrealistic expectations”.

Having analyzed the positions of different countries on the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, Afifeh Abedi in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations spelled out:” positions of countries on the Russian military invasion of Ukraine should be assessed according to their relations and issues they have with the countries involved in the crisis and they can not be categorized merely on the basis of their geographical situation”.

Having referred to the immediate and critical position taken by Japan as an Asian country against Russia, she added:” in the course of Russian invasion of Ukraine we witnessed that even countries which have issues unsettled with the West adopted a moderate position on the Russian invasion and did not expressly support these measures”.

Russian Incapability to Make Consensus

The expert on Russian issues commented on the critiques of some countries in conformity with Russian international positions and said:” although Russia is a political and military power but due to a number of reasons it lacks the power to make consensus among other countries, particularly with its recent military movements which have been against the international laws and has caused some concerns about the continuation of the Russian offensive policy versus other neighboring countries and members of the former Soviet Union. The majority of Arab and Asian countries have assessed the Russian measure as a major blow to the regional peace, stability and security”.

Abedi underscored:” Certainly, the situation of unilateral Russian military measure in Ukraine and the West’s avoidance to military reaction has created the viewpoint in international arena, particularly among countries that have unsettled issues with the U.S. and the West that the U.S. hegemony is completely collapsed, the era of development in international system has come and Russia is one of the new and unavoidable powers”.

Having stated that countries considered different aspects to announce their positions, she said:” After the U.S. military measures in Afghanistan and then in Iraq, the U.S. management over many global issues was admitted in some cases; but global economic crisis, the beginning of critical positions of Russia versus the U.S. unilateralism of 2007, war in Georgia and seizure of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia by Russia, the emergence of ISIS terrorist group afterwards and the U.S. incapability to unilaterally confront with it, Syrian developments in which Washington drew a red line and then withdrew from it, are among factors that countries consider them when they want to take position on global trends”.

Abedi continued:” Moreover, the U.S. exit from Afghanistan and turning China to supreme world economic power and now Russian invasion of Ukraine in total U.S. inaction are other indices in development of international system which have been and are effective on the declared positions of other countries versus current and future developments”.

The analyst of Russian issues spelled out:” it seems that the situations increases risk taking of players like Russia that dreams of becoming a superpower. But other players will continue to follow international developments cautiously”.

European Effective Role in Eruption of Ukraine Crisis

She referred to the remarks made by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy who said the EU has so far imposed two sanction packages on Russia and is trying hard to enforce the third one provided that the members agree. She said:” Europe had a very effective role to erupt Ukraine crisis in 2014. Europe’s promises to Ukraine on the membership of the country in the EU and NATO, without providing any pledge or guarantee, widened the political gap in Ukraine. On the opposite side, instead of being inaction, Russia adopted an offensive policy versus the developments”.

Abdi added:” Russia took action to annex Crimea and to station in the East of Ukraine versus pro-West demonstrators who attacked the Presidential Palace on February 22, 2014. It seems that Europe’s wrong policies played an effective role in intensification of Ukraine political and economic crisis. Although, crisis in the country had essentially deep rooted historic causes”.

Unrealistic Ukraine Expectation of NATO                         

The expert on Russia affairs referred to the remarks made by the Ukrainian President who said we have left alone to defend our country and NATO members are afraid of announcing Ukraine as a part of its territory, thus not to be obliged to help us, she emphasized:” Kiev expectations of the EU and NATO merely based on their political and verbal positions were unrealistic and Ukraine was involved in the present crisis based on these unrealistic expectations. The country had not officially become a NATO member and the West can naturally justify its inaction by virtue of the provisions of NATO”.

Having reminded the remarks made by the spokeswoman of the White House who said the U.S. would not enter into war with Russia and would not deploy its forces to Ukraine to fight, she said:” the U.S. is merely justifying its political position. In fact, the West had no obligatory commitment to Ukraine according to NATO Charter. The West had previously emphasized on the Russian movements that in case of Russians invasion of Ukraine, they would impose tough sanctions upon Russia and there was no word of military response”.

Abdedi continued to refer to the Ruble devaluation, fall of Russian stock exchange and continuous pressure on the country in the aftermath of Russian invasion of Ukraine with blocking the available cash of three Russian banks with an asset of $ 70 billion and noted:” now, Russia feels the European threats and in fact NATO threats more strongly, the West software as well as hardware programing to weaken Russia will certainly be updated. The announced new economic sanction is only a part of that. Remitting the crisis into Russia and increasing Moscow’s costs in Ukraine are other issues which are probably included in the U.S. and NATO agenda”.

China Benefits the Intensification of Crisis in Relations between the U.S. and Russia

The expert on Russia affairs elaborated China’s position versus Russian invasions of Ukraine and referred to some analyses that Beijing has avoided using the term assault. Moreover, uncondemning Moscow is considered as a green light showed to the country. She reminded:” because of its conservative policies and concentration on economic programs China has turned to become supreme economic power of the world. It seems that the recent positions taken by the country on the latest developments have also been conservative and in continuation of the recent Beijing issues in connection with Washington”.

Abdei said:” intensification of crisis in relation between the U.S. and Russia will definitively be beneficial to China, because it will reduce the U.S. concentration on the East and will prevent the U.S. to seriously confront with China, such a situation will be optimal to China. Yet, Beijing will not show any obvious movement on Ukraine crisis”.

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