Dr. Seyed Razi Emadi in an interview with the site of Strategic Council on Foreign Relations referred to the announcement of the final results of the Iraqi parliamentary election and reminded:” Inside Iraq, the recent election is considered to be as a ground to flex muscles between internal and external players. Therefore, victory in this field is a very important issue particularly in connection with nomination of prime minister”.

Main Competition Is among Inter-Shi’ite Groups in Iraq

Having stated that from the outset, it was obvious that the election in the country would not be a simple issue and it would turn to become a serious conflict, he added:” in view of minor changes which took place after the recounting of a part of votes, the main competition is now an issue of inter-Shi’ite groups and is not something among Shi’ites, Kurds and Sunnis. This is an issue which is looked for by opponents too in order to downgrade the competition not at national level”.

The university professor continued:” Now, the main conflict in Iraq is between State of Law coalition and its close partners from one hand and Sadr Movement from the other hand. Sunnis and Kurds have no serious objection about the results of the election and they have accepted them. It indicates that driving divergence among Shi’ite groups and intensifying it is a strategy that is being followed up by the opponents as they have been successful so far”.

Emadi predicted in view of the announced results, we will continued to witness the boosting inter-Shi’ite competition to form coalition and said:” the number of seats for Sadr Movement and its close allies after recounting votes did not increase but the number of seats for State of Law coalition increased. Yet, the majority coalition will not be formed easily, instead the disputes will continue along with the continuation of protests, because the groups close to Fath coalition believe that even recounting of votes has not met their interests”.

Political Instability Era in Iraq       

Having stated that in principle Iraqi competing movements hardly accept the results of the elections and they continue to protest, the analyst of West Asia affairs added:” it seems Iraq will enter into political instability era if protests continue. It is now about two months after the election was held. Usually, the parliament should have met and the speaker should have been introduced and it should have entered into political bargaining to introduce the Prime Minister but there is nothing happening. There is still (no light at the end of the tunnel and) no indication about the end of the deadlock”.

He continued:” the situation will continue to be as it is in Iraq. As we witnessed after the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi it took almost four months when Al-Kazimi was introduced as Prime Minister. It seems this time it requires even longer time to introduce new prime minister. This is the circumstance that the opponents of Resistance are completely pleased with.

Having emphasized that the strategy adopted by the opponents of resistance in the region is that those countries in line with resistance will be run and administered by fragile and weak governments that limit themselves just to go ahead, Emadi spelled out:” Unfortunately, the election in Iraq has become a driving force to divide and dispute rather than to pave the ground for unity. The issue must be the subject of pathology why such a trend has been formed in Iraq?”

Having stated that in new era, pressure on resistance groups in Iraq will be mounted, the university professor explained:” we will witness policies like disarming resistance groups that even some Shi’ite fractions will support them. External pressures will continue within the framework of boycotting resistance groups, personalities and even branding them as terrorist; but all such behaviors have been repeated against resistance groups during the recent years, and now with the new combination of parliament, they may follow up such cases more seriously”.

He added:” Yet, the new circumstance will leave no effect on Hash-ol-Sha’abi position in Iraq. Because, it is true that Hash- ol- Sha’abi is an Iraqi movement but it must be seen within the geopolitical axis of Resistance. Hash – ol- Sha’abi must be considered like Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansarollah and Islamic Jihad and similar resistance groups in Syria, they are completely linked together. Thus, principally there is no agenda called decommissioning Hash- ol- Sha’abi in Iraq that leads to result”.

Emadi emphasized:” Hash-ol-Sha’abi will not be weakened in Iraq, but the group should also revise its behavioral pattern. Unfortunately, in the recent round of election, there was no consensus and integration even inside Hash- ol- Sha’abi, and the dispute can damage it”.

Having stated the more Hash – ol- Sha’abi struggles to gain political power the weaker will become its position inside Iraq, the expert of West Asia affairs reminded:” Iraqi people have seen Hash- ol- Sha’abi more often in combat suit, when the main elements of the group enters into politics they will face popular resistance. And this is an issue that Hash – ol- Sha’abi should seriously rethink about.

He considered the strikes originated from internal disputes of Hash – ol -Sha’abi more effective than internal and external pressures against the group and added:” the kind of Hash- ol- Sha’abi behavior should also be noted in this connection. Their willingness to gain power should not exceed their willingness to rebuild Iraq and to serve Iraqi people. The propaganda will work out if such incidents take place, and the position of the group will be weakened. But if Hash – ol – Sha’abi maintains the unity among them and select a correct behavioral pattern then the internal and external pressures will not lead to its weakness.

Emadi stated that in the last election, we witnessed the people of Iraq turned their back to ballot boxes and a large part of Hash – ol –Sha’abi potential lost the votes. He said:” Now, the Sadr Movement is looking for holding talks with groups outside the Resistance axis to form government. For example, as long as Nouri Al-Maliki remains the leader of State of Law coalition, it will not negotiate with him, but they may enter into talks with Fath coalition, or Hakim and Heydar Al-Ebadi. In general, Sadr Movement is looking for counselling with groups such as Kurdistan Democratic Party or even Progress coalition”.

He added:” in circumstances where the gap and wedge among Shi’ite groups are so deep and no indication to minimize the gap is seen, they show no inclination towards negotiation. In case the future parliament is met, Shi’ite themselves will be the largest groups to criticize the government which is due to be formed”.