Speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Yasser Nouralivand, referred to the challenges facing the EU and Britain after Brexit and said: The EU and Britain are in “a period of turmoil and post-Brexit transition”. During that period, despite reaching an agreement on Britain’s withdrawal and commitments of the two sides, in general, the order of the past five decades dominating over the relations between the EU and Britain has disappeared and has not yet been replaced by a new order acceptable by the two side.

Brexit, a lose-lose game

Saying that Brexit is a lose-lose- game for the EU and Britain, he said: In this context and as a result of this situation, political and economic turmoil between the two sides in the form of disputes such as the dispute over fishing rights between France and Britain, immigration disputes over the entry of asylum seekers from France to Britain through the English Channel (la Manche), implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol and the disruption in the process of trade between the two sides are emerging, and there is the possibility for the emergence of other problems in the future.

The expert on Europe affairs continued: The current situation is the result of Britain’s desire for independence and full sovereignty after Brexit, and the EU’s reluctance to grant special privileges to Britain after its withdrawal.

Regarding the prospects of the problems between the European Union and Britain, Nouralivand stated: It seems that the current situation will continue until the establishment of the order satisfactory to both sides, and from time to time, such differences will arise between the two sides. This situation may continue for the next two to three years, but as both sides need to accelerate regulation and stabilization of bilateral relations and resolve this challenge immediately structurally and institutionally in order to focus on their other challenges as well as not lagging behind the global growth sphere, it is predicted that in the medium term, they will find solutions that are satisfactory to both parties.

Saying that the first step of Britain to advance its post-Brexit policies is to establish a new working relationship with the European Union, he continued: Britain, without determining the status of its relations with the European Union and withdrawing from the uncertainties associated with it, cannot hope to develop its relations with other parts of the world and attract foreign investment..

Nouralivand emphasized: Although it will not be easy to bridge the gap between the positions of the two sides, the experience of post-World War II Europe has shown that Europeans have learned well how to resolve challenges through diplomacy and negotiation, and resolving disputes over Brexit will not be an exception.

Saying that the experience of the past two or three years and the difficult negotiations between the two sides have shown that building a new and comprehensive relationship takes time, adding: It is anticipated that although Britain will be involved for some time in the aftermath of Brexit, including disputes with the EU and reparations for reduced trade and economic growth, however the country looks set to regain control over its trade policy; of course, if by then the people of that country endure the negative short-term and medium-term

Mutual need of Europe and Britain, a factor for maintaining convergence

The analyst of Europe affairs called the mutual need of Britain and the European Union to each other as a factor in maintaining convergence and relations between the two sides and said: Naturally, Brexit has broken the traditional relationship between the two sides and now a new relationship has been formed between the two and the challenges we are witnessing will continue until the two sides reach some kind of understanding, and perhaps it will get even more seriously; but in any case, the two sides will not allow their interests to be harmed..

Referring to the British Prime Minister’s threat to suspend parts of the Brexit agreement amid escalating disputes with the European Union over the Northern Ireland Protocol and fisheries rights, Nouralivand continued: Both Britain wants the independence it needs in order to achieve a global Britain and the EU does not want Britain to become a good model for other countries, because it does not want them to seek separation and impose costs on the EU.

Referring to the escalation of tensions between France and Britain, he stressed: Brexit will have an impact on Britain’s bilateral relations with other EU countries; however, the level of tension will not be as such that those countries act completely divergently. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that we are now in an era of international relations in which countries have realized that they need to pay more attention to the policy of increasing power, and in this context, new relations are being formed.

Scatteredness and structural weakness of European Union

Explaining the common threats and factors that forced European countries not to act divergently, Nouralivand noted: For more than a decade, Europe has entered a period of internal conflict that has manifested itself well since the 2008 crisis. In the last decade, we have witnessed such scatteredness and weakness in various European issues. Basically, the tendency of Britain and Poland to separate stems from the same weakness that countries see in the structure of the European Union.

The expert on Europe affairs said that countries no longer see the structure of the EU as a dream and their vision has become more realistic, and at the same time the efficiency of the EU has been reduced, adding: Membership in the European Union still has more benefits for the countries than leaving it, and consequences of Brexit have shown themselves over time. This has also reduced the excitement of leaving the Union. Poland ultimately does not expect to leave the Union and is now looking for more concessions, but it is clear that the EU’s weakness has led countries to think that if it persists, they will probably consider independence.