Monopolist Configuration of Taliban Interim Cabinet & Its Consequences

2021/09/14 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online- Interview: An analyst of Afghanistan affairs having said that the victor of the Taliban’s list is the Haqqani faction and Pakistan, and Molla Baradar faction has been marginalized, said:” Afghanistan society is now experiencing a profound gap between the government and other ethnics and religious sects. The situation is very dangerous and may lead to an internal war.

Pirmohammad Molla Zehi in an interview with the site of Strategic Council for Foreign Relations having said that the decision to launch a military attack on Panjshir and settling the intra-Taliban disputes are basically among those issues that were reviewed in the course of the visit of the head of ISI of Pakistan to Kabul. He stated that:” Apparently, with Pakistan’s management, Taliban decided not to declare the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan for the time being and to form a caretaker cabinet containing Quetta Council and Haqqani Network. They also appointed acting ministers for ministries, but the combination was not the same as the Taliban had promised and observers expected for.

The analyst of Afghanistan affairs continued:” It was conceived that Taliban would not head towards the monopoly of power while the monopoly of power is functionalized both ethnically and ideologically at the present time. Everybody is from Pashtun ethnic group, they have not let other ethnicities take a share in power, and by ideological monopoly, they have not let any other political and religious group participate in the government.

MollaZehi told:” Obviously, other excluded ethnics may approach the resistance front and strengthen Panjshir. We witness the positions taken by Afghanistan political groups that represent they have not accepted the structure (of power) and they may join the resistance. Time requires as to when and how the resistance shows itself, but it is true that Afghanistan society is now experiencing a profound gap between the government and other ethnicities and religious sects. The situation is very dangerous and may lead to an internal war.

Victor of Taliban’s List; Haqqani Faction & Pakistan                  

Having said that the victor of Taliban’s list is Haqqani faction and Pakistan, and Molla Baradar faction has been marginalized, said:” Quetta Council or Peshawar Council have differences of opinions with Haqqani Network on behavior and the type of government they want to form, but at a present junction, Haqqani Network has the military power. Kabul was seized by them, but the Quetta Council has no other elements except conventional forces at the leadership level. The dealing made by Pakistan is also in favor of the Haqqani Network; because the military power is at their disposal.

According to the expert on Afghanistan, It seems that there is a compromise between the two sides in which the Quetta Council had admitted to its weak position. The dealing might have been made on the leadership post.

MollaZehi explained:” There might have been a compromise that cabinet members are mostly from Haqqani Network and military issues will be taken care of by them to organize in future, provided that there will be no critique against Molla Akhund leadership from their side. However, this is a separate issue how this agreement is going to be functionalized; but at the moment, Haqqani Network has appointed the leader, and if they achieve this post too, Quetta Council will be practically neutralized with a cosmetic presence. They will not be able to take any action, and Pakistan will overwhelmingly overrule Afghanistan.

Military Restrictions of Quetta Council against Haqqani Network        

Having referred to some analyses on the possibility of separation of Quetta Council from Haqqani Network, the outbreak of clashes and internal disputes among Taliban, he said:” Quetta Council has no military potential to stand against Haqqani network. Therefore, it may play an antagonist role and remain in the government, but they can’t take arms. It shouldn’t be forgotten that an important part of Taliban forces have gone towards Haqqani Network. Their important field commanders did not accept the compromised agreement signed between the Taliban and the U.S. in Doha. That’s why they either left the country or joined ISIS. Now, a part of ISIS is the very same Taliban forces who were dissatisfied with the Doha talks.

Having stated that Quetta Council has an upper political hand, MollaZehi added:” Haqqani Network is in the U.S. terrorist list, and they had offered a $ 5 million reward for the head of Mr. Sirajuddin Haqqni who is now appointed as the acting minister of interior, and after nominating Taliban cabinet ministers, they have increased the reward to $ 10 million. If the Taliban wants to be recognized by the West, they will have no options but to accept Quetta Council to some extent.

Having referred to the effects of the presence of Quetta Council members in Guantanamo prison who know the U.S. better, he spelled out:” Quetta Council will not take any risk for a military clash. Moreover, there is no internal stable condition, therefore, they try their best to sort out the disputes among themselves and Pakistan will (mediate to) make a compromise.

Having stated that people, as well as political and ethnical groups of Afghanistan, have not accepted the cabinet introduced by the Taliban, stressed that:” For sure, resistance against the monopoly will be definite. It can’t be said that at least 50% of the non-Pashtun population will surrender. Today situation in Afghanistan is different from the situation in the past. Other ethnicities are now familiar with arms too. They can fight, organize, and demonstrate. But the problem goes beyond Afghanistan. We should also take into account the presence and the role played by major and regional powers in this country. For example, China and Russia may secure their interests with Taliban presence, replace the West, and sort out the financial difficulties of Afghanistan.

In the meantime, he added that:” if the gap between Taliban government and other popular and civil groups leads to internal war, the regional countries will have to support one of the parties. In that case, the internal war will turn to a proxy war. In such a condition, there might be chaos and ISIS will take action with its ambition.

Having stated that Taliban has no concern about the popular protests, he called the appointment message of Sirajuddin Haqqani as the acting minister of interior was to create a security and repressive atmosphere and said:” They are in a full authority position and made their agreements with the U.S. and try to suppress any disturbance on their way”.

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