Ali Abdi, speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, referred to the achievements of the Resistance Front in the recent Gaza war and its impact on Netanyahu’s political destiny and said: From the Israeli point of view, especially critics and opponents of Mr. Netanyahu and the right wing, he was the cause of two years of political stalemate in that regime. Despite holding four rounds of elections, no opening was achieved in that situation; on the one hand, the right wing and Netanyahu himself could not form a strong government with a stable and complete coalition, and on the other hand, the left and center wing could not seize power.
Impact of recent Gaza war on Netanyahu’s defeat
He added: The battle of ‘Saif al-Quds’ was very effective in shaping the grounds for Netanyahu’s defeat; with the prolongation of the war, which was initially expected to end in Netanyahu’s favor, the regime was virtually unable to contain the resistance, Hamas and its missiles, and was forced to accept the terms of the resistance. An issue that severely damaged Israel’s reputation and, in addition to affecting the economy, disrupted its stability and security for 12 days.
The expert on the Zionist regime’s affairs said that the situation that was expected to turn the page in Mr. Netanyahu’s favor worsened his situation and intensified the criticism.
Abdi referred to the announcement of an alliance between Naftali Bennett, the leader of the Yemina party, and Yair Lapid, and the creation of conditions for the formation of the next government by joining the coalition of Lieberman and Mansour Abbas, as the leader of the first Palestinian Arab movement who cooperates with an Israeli government and continued: However, it is not yet possible to say for sure whether the end of Netanyahu’s work is certain. Although there is a 95% chance that he would be toppled, given that the speaker of the Knesset, is a member of the Likud and is influenced by Netanyahu, they may be able to delay the vote to form a new government and influence elements of the right wing Yemina.
He said the maximum number of seats that the union has in its possession is 62, and if Netanyahu and Likud can remove even two members of the Yemina faction from the “coalition for change”, the Yair Lapid government will not be formed and a fifth election will have to be held. In fact, the task will be clarified in about a week or 10 days; either the government is formed or another election must be held.
According to Abdi, if the fifth election is to be held, the same situation will continue with the presence of Netanyahu, and it is unlikely that his party will vote in the election. This will be the case as long as he is in power; unless they can oust him, and the alliance is trying to oust him.
Stressing that the situation so far is to Netanyahu’s disadvantage but that his downfall is not yet certain, the analyst of the Zionist regime’s affairs added: It is possible that the gleam will turn the page in his favor, because Netanyahu is a very strong politician and no one is as strong as he is in the power relations in the political structure of the Zionist regime. He is a Machiavellian politician in every sense of the word and a master of polarizing and injecting fear in the Israeli society.
Consequences and strategic dimensions of Netanyahu’s defeat
Regarding the consequences and strategic dimensions of Netanyahu’s defeat, Abdi said: Although the politicians in that regime are all Zionists and extremists and consider Iran and the resistance as enemies, the issue is about the level of empowerment of political-strategic actions. Certainly in the Zionist regime, in terms of the extent of foreign and international relations, especially in relations with the United States, as well as Mr. Putin himself, and even relations with China, and the ability to use political and military-security leverage, no one can match Netanyahu and anyone else who comes to power will reduce its military-security power and face the regime with more challenges.
At the same time, saying that the Zionist regime is in a contradictory situation, he explained: Netanyahu’s presence will be to Israel’s detriment in the long run and will face more serious challenges.
Abdi added: It should be borne in mind that Netanyahu may step down, but his heavy shadow will remain on Israel for a long time. Netanyahu has left a political legacy that will not easily allow the prime ministers after him to be more open-minded, and will certainly place severe restrictions on them. It is as if Ben-Gurion himself created such a situation, and the heavy shadow of his legacy cast a shadow over Israel for decades, and Netanyahu is one of those who shattered that image.
Emphasizing that issues such as the “Deal of the Century” will lose their relevance with Netanyahu’s departure, the expert on the Zionist regime’s affairs clarified: This is not because they are no longer part of the regime’s interests, they certainly do not go back to before the Deal of the Century. And they leave those cases open, but they have no one as capable as Netanyahu. The advancement of the Deal of the Century had two strong levers; Trump and Netanyahu. With the departure of Netanyahu, those levers will disappear, but at the same time, no one is willing to go back to the Deal of the Century, and the situation will not change for the benefit of the Palestinian people and Arab countries.
Abdi continued: Maybe something will happen in the showcase and the form of the work, but there will be no serious change in its nature and inside. The nature of the regime is based on occupation and terror, and the travel of people only affects its severity. The decline in that power is also due to the approach and weakness of the prime minister, and certainly the intensity of occupation and terrorism was at its peak during the Netanyahu era.
Referring to Netanyahu’s many sources of power and influence, he noted: The AIPAC was just one of the network of contacts and resources he had in the United States that had become his private life during his tenure. In fact, for a variety of reasons, no prime minister will have that influence.
End of third generation of Israel’s political elite
Abdi said if we assume that Netanyahu is out of power, we will be witness to a new era in Israel. Calling Netanyahu as the symbol of the third generation of Israel’s political elite, he added: If we consider the first generation as the generation of the founders, whose symbol was “Ben Gurion”, the second generation is the generation of the guards, who are considered the symbol of this generation, Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon. In this context, it was the third generation of the so-called “new elites” in Israeli political literature that entered the Israeli political arena in the 1990s, and Mr. Netanyahu became the main symbol of that movement.
He stressed: With Netanyahu stepping down from power, we can say that the era of the third generation of political elites is over and we will be witness to the emergence of a new generation in which Bennett and Lapid are among the prominent figures. Although this generation is actually experiencing Netanyahu’s heavy shadow; it is too early to judge where it will go and what approach it will be taken.