Amir Ali Abolfath, an expert on American affairs, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, commented on the future of the US elections and said: The result of the US presidential elections is still unknown, and this task has become so controversial that until noon on January 20, 2021, it will not be possible to determine who will be the next US president. In fact, between January 6 and January 20, the final result of the elections will be determined.
He said: At present, on the one hand, Joe Biden has been nominated as President-elect and, on the other hand, Donald Trump insists that he will eventually win the elections. Therefore, it’s too early to talk about post-Trump America. But if the outcome is as such that Joe Biden sworn in as the 46th US president, it is too early to assess the foreign policy of the new US administration and that of Joe Biden himself.
Referring to the impression about Biden in Iran that he used to be Barak Obama’s vice-president and, therefore, a great part of the policies implemented by Obama in the field of foreign policy would be pursued by his vice-president, he said: Biden has given a series of election promises, made speeches and tweets, and wrote articles that could serve as a source for analysis. However, we must keep in mind that there is no necessity for Biden to continue Obama’s path or that we should witness the third presidential term of Barack Obama. At the same time, there is no need for the fulfilment of the election promises of Biden and his entourage.
Referring to the outlook of Biden’s United States to global treaties and bilateral and multilateral agreements, the expert said: In general, there are meaningful differences between the viewpoint of Trump’s team and Biden’s team towards foreign policy, but it is possible that in some cases, the next administration would continue the path of the previous administration. As an example, the Biden’s United States is likely to continue its pressure on NATO members to increase their share of the NATO military spending. This demand was also raised by the Obama administration, but he did not insist much on it due to a series of considerations that he had as he did not intend to upset his allies. But Trump exerted a lot of pressure on it. Therefore, even in Biden’s presidency, it seems that since the United States cannot afford the heavy cost of security for itself and its allies alone, it will likely increase pressure on its allies in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East.
He continued: Now it is likely that pursuing such policies would not cause tension and controversy as it did in Trump’s presidency; because Trump used to publicly discuss many of the disputes in Twitter, but Biden is likely to pursue such demands behind the negotiation tables and closed doors.
Saying that it seems Biden is decisive to make a fundamental change with regard to climate change, Abolfath added: The Democrats, especially the left-wing of the party, have a strong emphasis on the issue of clean energy inside the United States and this debate will continue at the international arena in the area of the return to the Paris Climate Agreement.
Noting that in some other cases we might be witness to a sharper stance to be taken by Joe Biden, he said: Trade agreements with China are among those issues, and it is likely that pressures from the Biden administration will be greater than that of Trump administration. Also, with regard to the agreement with the Russians, it seems that Biden’s the United States would deal much harder with Moscow, whether in strategic areas such as the new START treaty or global issues and global governance. Therefore, Biden’s policies need to be examined on a case-by-case basis, once his team is in place and its members are appointed.