Some estimates indicate that Joe Biden is leading the polls in electoral colleges with a large gap with Donald Trump. In this respect, even if Trump files a legal complaint about the result of the elections and the Republican Party refuses to support him, elections and their outcome would be handled in a normal manner. The normal practice in elections means voting will finish on Tuesday and the loser shall call the winner and congratulate him and everything finishes on the same night of the “election day”; this is the modus operandi of every presidential elections in the United States.
However, the difference of these elections compared to the past is that Trump is a different man and in case of defeat in Tuesday’s elections, clashes, legal action and fight are probable by him. This may happen only when the difference in the votes is minor. If the difference is major, and Joe Biden is declared winner the same night or the day after the elections, and if Donald Trump accepts the outcome of the elections, it will be over there; this is the first scenario which could be drawn about the day after the ongoing US presidential elections.
The second scenario can be discussed from this angle that opinion polls, which these days introduce Biden as the winner of elections, follow the same fate of 2016 when Hillary Clinton was running for president and leading Trump in both the opinion polls and ballot boxes. If this happens on Tuesday, Trump will win again. Of course, poll agencies announced after the 2016 US presidential elections that there was a mistake in opinion polls at the state level as they had apparently disregarded that part of the American society who do not take part in opinion polls. Therefore, the same problem may occur again in this year’s presidential elections.
Some of these opinion polls are conducted by companies and networks inclined towards the Democratic Party. For example, the CNN has now turned into an election campaign headquarter for Biden, broadcasting extensively against Trump. Therefore, such opinion polls taken by such institutes are biased. The problem is not only in the methodology of the opinion polls but they may be “fabricating opinion” as a project within the framework of polls.
However, the probability of riots and protests after Tuesday’s elections is dependant on the occurrence of the third scenario in which the votes of the two candidates are very close—no matter who has the highest number of the votes. Legal fights have already begun between a large number of lawyers and law firms as well as individuals belonging to both the parties; two or three cases have even made their ways to the Supreme Council. And Trump is hoping to lose the elections, if it happens, with a low margin with Biden so that Trump can initiate and engage in a legal fight in which case he has higher chance to win as six judges of the US Supreme Court have been appointed by the Republicans and only three by the Democratic Party.
There may be a question: these people are judges and would therefore issue a judgment based on the evidence. How can they issue a false verdict? But the reality is that during the 2000 contest, the judges of the US Supreme Court produced their judgment totally on the basis of partisan politics and interests and declared George Bush Sr. the winner and Al Gore the loser of elections as Bush’s party had the support of five judges against the four supporting the Democrats in the US Supreme Court. Therefore, both in the US Supreme Council and in the nine main grey states, the legislative branch of state power is controlled by the Republicans. So, here they can support Trump and a legal fight starts at the state level and they introduce Trump as the winner; and this would be in line with the laws as the voting is not by the people.
With these explanations, if elections are not held on Tuesday, there will be no problem in terms of the Constitution. Unlike the Constitution of Iran which stipulates that the president shall be elected by the direct vote of the people; therefore, if the US elections are held on the basis of this constitutional authority, it will ultimately end in Trump’s favor because on the nine states, eight are controlled by the Republicans. Moreover, the current structures are also aligned with Trump and if Biden wins the elections with a slight margin, Trump can claim fraud in the votes and remains legally and lawfully the President of the United States even if he has won fewer votes. In case this happens, Democrats may protest and supporters of the two parties throng the streets, causing potentially mass riots.
On the other side, as guns outnumber population in the United States and can be freely used by Americans, clashes and conflicts are highly probable in case of turmoil. All this, of course, is dependant on clashes and protests being long term.
It is necessary to mention here that the elites in the Republican camp are not pleased with Trump; so, if the gap between Trump’s votes with Biden’s is large, they may not support Trump in his protest bid. Additionally, these elites are Americans and most probably they are not interested in the emergence of clashes in American streets.
In concluding these scenarios, it could be mentioned that like any other country which holds presidential elections and riots are likely after the outcome of elections is revealed, the United States is no exception to this rule. However, the difference between the United States and other countries is that Americans are free to carry and use guns and even machine guns in the streets. This means any riot in the US would be followed by shootings by the supporters of the two parties. Therefore, consequences of clashes in the US are more serious. There are presently many political controversies in the American media and they are rattling saber against the rivals.
I believe that the problem of the US is that there is no election supervisory institute which could be considered “impartial” at least in gesture. Those who hold and supervise the elections are all politically inclined and would arrange against their rival party in practice wherever possible. Therefore, in the United States, the occurrence of protest, clashes and riots is much easier due to the system ruling that country.