Amirali Abolfath, in an interview with the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations’ website, noted that Trump’s new tariff policies are more tied to political objectives than economic rationale. Trump uses tariffs as a tool to exert political pressure and advance his domestic and foreign agendas. The 50% tariff on Brazil, announced under the pretext of the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is a clear example of this approach.

Abolfath explained that the U.S. trade deficit with many countries, including Brazil, serves as a justification for these policies. However, the data presented by the White House regarding the trade deficit with Brazil has been labeled “inaccurate” by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Da Silva stated that over the past 15 years, the U.S. has had a $410 billion trade surplus in bilateral trade with Brazil. This contradiction indicates that the tariffs are less about solving America’s economic problems and more about sending political messages to countries that do not align with White House policies.

According to the U.S. affairs analyst, this approach was also seen during Trump’s first presidential term. In 2018, he imposed tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports from various countries, which triggered retaliatory measures from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. This time, however, the scope and severity of the tariffs are broader and heavier, potentially escalating trade tensions to unprecedented levels.

Imposing Tariff Policies: Success or Failure?

Abolfath examined the outcomes of previous U.S. tariff policies and argued that they have had limited success. He said, “Trump claims that tariffs have protected domestic jobs and increased tax revenues, but statistical data show these policies have led to higher prices and reduced the competitiveness of the U.S. economy.”

The analyst cited a Wall Street Journal report, emphasizing that Trump’s heavy tariffs have had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. The annual inflation rate has reached 2.7%, and the prices of imported goods, such as furniture and clothing, have increased. Abolfath emphasized that these price increases harm American consumers and could lead to a reduction in purchasing power and public dissatisfaction. Additionally, sharp declines in global financial markets, including those of Asian and American stock exchanges, have been a reaction to these new tariffs. For example, shares of Asian automakers like Toyota and Honda plummeted after the announcement of a 25% tariff on non-American cars.

However, the analyst noted that some U.S. domestic industries, such as steel and automotive manufacturing, may benefit from these policies in the short term. But he warned that these short-term gains are negligible compared to long-term costs, such as losing export markets and weakening global supply chains.

Global Reactions: From Diplomacy to Retaliatory Measures

Abolfath stated, *”Countries targeted by U.S. tariffs have responded differently to these policies. Some, like Canada and Mexico, have successfully negotiated temporary tariff suspensions, while others, such as China and Brazil, have taken a more aggressive stance. China, in retaliation for the U.S.’s 104% tariff on Chinese goods, imposed an 84% tariff on American products. Brazil, in response to the 50% U.S. tariff, has threatened counter-tariffs, with President Lula da Silva calling the move ‘unacceptable extortion.’ The European Union, while delaying its retaliatory tariffs until early August, is preparing a list of countermeasures.”*

The U.S. affairs analyst believes that international reactions to Trump’s tariffs could lead to a full-blown trade war. He noted, “Countries can no longer remain silent in the face of America’s unilateral policies. This situation may lead to the formation of new trade blocs and a decline in U.S. economic influence worldwide.” According to Abolfath, even traditional U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea are angered by these tariffs and may move toward strengthening trade relations with China and the EU.

Global Consequences

Abolfath identified several key factors that will shape the future of U.S. tariff policies. First, the White House’s ability to align Congress with these policies is crucial. He explained that, under the U.S. Constitution, trade policy falls under congressional authority, and Trump’s circumvention of Congress by declaring a national emergency has created legal challenges. Some U.S. courts and businesses have criticized these policies for their negative impact on the domestic economy.

Second, the coordinated response of other countries will play a significant role in determining the outcome. The U.S. affairs analyst said, “If countries respond unitedly and in adherence to global trade rules, they may force Trump to retreat.” He pointed to the temporary U.S.-China agreement to reduce tariffs by 115% for 90 days as an example of diplomacy’s power in easing tensions.

Third, the long-term effects of these policies on the global trade order are concerning. Abolfath warned that continuing this approach could lead to the formation of trade blocs and weaken the World Trade Organization (WTO). He argued that the U.S. must cooperate with its allies, not confront them, to maintain its position in the global economy. According to the analyst, focusing on traditional industries and protectionist policies while China rises as a scientific and technological superpower could leave the U.S. behind in global competition.

Finally, Abolfath emphasized that Trump’s tariff policies are more of a political show to rally domestic support than a solution to America’s economic problems. He said, “Trump, with his ‘America First’ slogan, seeks to satisfy his voter base, but these policies may lead to America’s economic and political isolation in the world.” However, he believes there is still room for negotiation and diplomacy—provided the U.S. and other countries shift from confrontation to cooperation.