Major Drill and Shifts in Balances

Ismail Bashiri told the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations website: “China’s drill at this historical juncture is above all political in nature. By holding this exercise, Beijing is demonstrating its readiness to play a different role in the regional security order. The presence of leaders from countries such as Russia, Belarus, and North Korea alongside China portrays a new convergence that in a sense parallels the absence of Western leaders from this event.”

The senior Southeast Asia expert believes: “This drill carries multiple messages: on the one hand, it warns Washington that economic pressures and sanctions will not restrain China, and on the other, it conveys to regional countries that Beijing can serve as the core of a new security bloc.” He emphasizes: “The timing of the drill is particularly significant; precisely when the U.S. is entangled in the Ukraine war and domestic crises, China has deemed the stage suitable for displaying its power.”

From Bashiri’s perspective: “Beijing has learned well that showcasing military strength is itself a form of deterrent diplomacy. China is seeking, without entering a costly war, to both display its deterrent power and shift the political and psychological balances in its favor. This is precisely the point at which East Asia is pushed toward a multipolar equation, without China falling into the Western trap of war over Taiwan.”

Technological Transformation in Hypersonic Warfare and China’s Superiority Over NATO

According to this expert: “What distinguishes the upcoming drill from previous maneuvers is not only its size and scope but also the type of technologies to be showcased.” He points out: “China’s hypersonic weapons and modern communication networks have reached a level enabling precise coordination among ground, air, naval, and even space forces.”

Bashiri explains: “The accuracy of these systems is so high that NATO and the U.S. will face serious constraints in mounting a rapid, coordinated response. This is what he calls a ‘strategic shift in the global balance of power.’” In his view: “China has now reached a stage where it can, relying on indigenous technology, bridge its historical gap with the West and even surpass it in some fields.”

From the perspective of this China affairs analyst: “This development is not merely a technical advantage, but rather a deterrent advantage. With these technologies, China reminds the U.S. and its allies that the era of Western technological monopoly has ended.” He stresses: “This transformation will affect not only the military balance but also the global political and diplomatic balance, compelling Asian and even European countries to reconsider their relations with Beijing.”

Taiwan: China’s Opportunity to Restore Balance Amid the Ukraine War

Ismail Bashiri considers Taiwan to be “one of the most sensitive geopolitical cases directly affected by China’s drill.” In his view: “The U.S. is trying to turn Taiwan into a pressure point similar to Ukraine to impose constant pressure on Beijing; but China, by adopting a strategy of patience and relying on extensive drills, has chosen a different path.”

The expert explains: “Beijing views Taiwan from three angles: first, strengthening military deterrence at minimal cost; second, sending a political message to the U.S. and its allies that it is ready to defend its territorial integrity; and third, consolidating Beijing’s geopolitical position in the South China Sea.”

The member of the Strategic Research Center reminds: “The Ukraine experience has taught China important lessons—that displaying power can, without direct war, increase the rival’s costs and alter diplomatic conditions. In fact, by holding such drills, China places the U.S. in a difficult position, since any excessive pressure could trigger reciprocal responses from Beijing and intensify the crisis. That is why this upcoming drill can be seen as part of China’s long-term strategy to manage the Taiwan issue and restore the balance of power in East Asia—a balance that will directly affect global equations as well.”

The Drill as an Opportunity for China Following Trump’s Economic and Diplomatic Pressures

Bashiri also points to the impact of Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S., arguing that “Trump’s aggressive policies against China—including intensified sanctions and restrictions on access to advanced technologies—have effectively driven Beijing toward greater reliance on military power and deterrence.”

According to this East Asia affairs expert, “The current drill is an opportunity for China not only to showcase its defensive preparedness but also to demonstrate to the world that economic and diplomatic pressures cannot weaken the country. In fact, this maneuver delivers two clear messages: first, resilience against Washington’s policies, and second, readiness to play the role of a reliable security partner for regional countries and beyond.”

The member of the Strategic Research Center concludes: “The consequences of this drill will not be merely military. China’s enhanced defense credibility will directly impact its trade and diplomatic relations. Countries that were previously cautious in cooperating with Beijing may now engage with greater confidence. While the U.S. pursues a containment policy, China, through such displays of power, is redefining its place in the international order.”