Consequences of the possible military operation of the Zionist regime in Rafah

Strategic Council Online—Opinion: While the Zionist regime had designated Rafah as a safe zone for civilians, in the last few weeks, the air attacks on this area, which is called "Gaza's gateway to the outside world" and where about 1.3 million displaced people are also present, has been intensified. Hamid Khoshayand- Expert of regional issues

The ground operation in Rafah is one of Tel Aviv’s important military plans, which has recently been put on the agenda of the Netanyahu government. Netanyahu has emphasized in new remarks that Israel will fight until complete victory, including a strong action in Rafah. So, we give Palestinian civilians a chance to leave Rafah.

Earlier, in a conversation with the US foreign minister, he had re-emphasized the effort to destroy the Hamas military battalions in Rafah before the month of Ramadan and announced that the ground operation in Rafah would begin in the coming days.

The impending attack on Rafah has been condemned by many international institutions, human rights organizations, regional countries, and the European Union. The Secretary General of the United Nations, the EU foreign policy Chief, France, the UK, Germany, and other European countries have expressed their opposition and concern about the plan of the Zionist regime to attack Rafah by land and have demanded an immediate stop to the war and a complete ceasefire.

The Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and many Arab countries have also warned about a ground attack on Rafah. Among the officials of the Israeli regime, the differences of opinion regarding this operation have intensified, especially between Netanyahu and the Chief of the Army’s General Staff, Herzi Halevi.

In the meantime, the US government has adopted a contradictory approach to the Zionist regime’s ground attack on Rafah. Although the Biden administration has apparently joined the ranks of the opponents of the attack on Rafah, John Kirby, the spokesman of the White House National Security Council, said in response to whether Washington threatened its ally Tel Aviv to cut off military aid that “We continue to support Israel, and we will ensure that they have the necessary tools and capabilities to do that.” These statements can be interpreted as the US green light to attack Rafah.

From the military attack on Rafah, the Zionist regime pursues important goals on both “declaration” and “practical” levels.

The destruction of Hamas and the release of prisoners are among the most frequent phrases in Netanyahu’s statements in recent days regarding the attack on Rafah. In this regard, he claimed: The destruction of Hamas is our primary goal. Most of the remaining Hamas battalions are stationed in the west of Gaza and Rafah city, and the next goal is to fight with them.

In the first step, Netanyahu is trying to “compensate for the failure of his declared goals” in Gaza, including the destruction of Hamas and the release of prisoners, and pressuring the Palestinian resistance to withdraw from their positions through a ground attack on Rafah. Netanyahu considers the attack on Rafah as the last point of political, military, and security “achievements” in the Gaza war to reduce the pressure of domestic public opinion, especially the families of the Zionist prisoners.

The hardline Zionist cabinet, which is under severe pressure from the families of the prisoners, believes that the prisoners are kept in Rafah, so with a ground attack on this city, they can free them, get out of the pressure, and create a breathing space for themselves.

Netanyahu, under cover of his declared intentions, pursues other goals: 1- To create terror among the residents of Gaza and Rafah to transfer them to the West Bank, the surrounding countries, and the Sinai desert; 2- Ensure the security of Zionist settlers; 3- Strengthening the expansionist policy in the occupied territories by taking control of the Gaza strip and Rafah; 4- Creating new security and political arrangements in Gaza, similar to what exists in the West Bank; 5- Increasing bargaining power in negotiations with Hamas; 6- The transfer of the Rafah crossing to the Karam Abu Salem area, which increases the control of the Zionist regime in the field of security inspection and… on entry points; 7- Exhausting the war in Gaza to help Trump win the upcoming elections; 8- Finally, preventing Cairo from interfering in the administration of the Rafah crossing is one of the “real” and “strategic” goals of the Zionist regime in the ground attack on Rafah.

Regarding the “prospect” of a ground attack on Rafah, it must be said that the regime, which admittedly could not succeed in attacking Gaza with 300,000 soldiers and heavy and advanced equipment and, considering the field and military situation, will definitely fail in the attack on Rafah as well.

Realizing practical goals through the attack on Rafah requires victory in the field of declared goals. Therefore, it is natural that the failure of the declared objectives of the attack on Rafah, which is already known, will also cause the failure of the strategic objectives. In addition, the attack on Rafah, considering the reaction of Hamas, which has announced that the Zionist regime will face a greater response than the Al-Aqsa storm operation, will not only speed up and complicate the rhythm of the war but will also put the Zionist regime in a more difficult situation.

At the same time, the attack on Rafah will have important consequences for Tel Aviv, among which we can point out the intensification of reactions and opposition that exist today at the level of domestic, regional, and international public opinion, as well as the government; Intensification of international pressure against the Zionist regime; complicating the issue of the release of the Zionist prisoners; the threat of the Camp David Treaty due to Egypt’s warning to suspend it; the hardening of the process of American support to Tel Aviv and further disruption of the Zionist regime’s efforts to normalize relations with Arab countries, among others are the other important consequences in this field.

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