US New Scenario to Open a New Front Against Russia in the Caucasus

2023/01/01 | Defense & Security, Opinion

Strategic Council Online—Opinion: The war in Ukraine is going against the goals, interests and perspectives of the foreign policy of the United States, NATO and European allies. In the past ten months, the Americans have taken several actions in the form of military-intelligence assistance, political, diplomatic and international movements, economic sanctions, etc., with "tactical goals" based on defeating, weakening or grounding Russia, but they have not achieved desirable and real results in this field. Hamid Khoshayand - Expert on regional issues

The White House has so far provided more than 100 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, including 60 billion dollars in military aid, 27 billion in government aid, and 15 billion in so-called humanitarian aid. Britain is in the second place with more than 5 billion dollars in military aid. The European Union, Germany, Poland, Estonia and Canada are also in the next ranks of arms aid to Ukraine.

These aids have been provided in the short term to counter the advance of the Russians in Ukraine and to strengthen the country’s front; Besides, it has “strategic goals” behind the scenes and can be evaluated in the framework of “maintaining the atmosphere of conflict against Russia” as well as the “prosperity of arms markets” which has brought even European countries into this atmosphere of conflicts and through costly processes, it has placed them at the service of the interests of the US.

Although a lot of damage has been caused to Russia due to the war in Ukraine in the last ten months, the US has not been able to achieve its anti-Russian goals in this war. At the same time, the war in Ukraine has put a “worrying prospect” in front of European countries and NATO.

The thoughtful statements made a few weeks ago by Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, show the depth of concern of Europeans regarding the continuation of this costly military, economic, political and security war. Stoltenberg said in a speech that “Russia’s victory will be a bad thing for the whole NATO, because it will send a message not only to Putin but also to totalitarian leaders like China that they can achieve their goals by using military power.”

The effort to achieve strategic results in the war in Ukraine and to resolve existing concerns has led to a new scenario in which the US government, along with NATO, seeks to “open a new front against Russia” through Georgia. According to the information provided by Russia in this regard, NATO and the United States are inciting Georgia to create a conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thereby involving Russia in the Caucasus.

In this regard, “Denis Gonchar”, the head of the fourth department of the Commonwealth of Independent States in the Russian Foreign Ministry, said, “There have been provocative requests from Georgia to open the second front of the war against Russia by Kiev and some Western countries.”

Of course, this issue has existed in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, but in recent weeks, the pressure on Georgia has increased.

By involving Russia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the United States is trying to shift an important part of Russia’s focus from Ukraine to the conflict in the Caucasus and to a large extent change the “balance of war” in Ukraine in favor of the United States and European allies, but considering the existing challenges and obstacles, as well as the considerations that Georgia has in this regard, its realization is practically impossible for the following reasons:

First, the experience of the events of the last years in Tbilisi and Moscow shows that Georgia is an already defeated front for Russia’s involvement in the Caucasus. Ossetia and Abkhazia have been governed autonomously since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of Georgia. In 2008, instigated by NATO, Georgia tried to annex these areas with a military attack, which met with a harsh response from the Russian army.

Georgia’s conflict with Russia in 2008 became a costly experience for Tbilisi’s statesmen, so that despite the claims they still have regarding the two mentioned regions, they no longer engage with Moscow.

Secondly, for Georgia, a renewed conflict over Abkhazia and Ossetia or any other issue is accompanied by destructive consequences that even the public opinion of this country avoids. According to polls, 93 percent of Georgians are against military mechanisms with Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia and prefer diplomatic solutions to anything. In this regard, despite opposing Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Georgia has taken the side of caution and neutrality and has not even joined the anti-Russian sanctions.

Thirdly, the experience of the Ukrainian war and the contradictory and dual behavior of the US and Europe towards Ukraine and the revelation of its visible and hidden dimensions, which turned the existence and survival of a country into a tool to advance their interests, created a strong atmosphere of pessimism in public opinion. And Georgia has decided not to fall into a “more dangerous trap” than what was prepared for Ukraine.

Fourthly, assuming the start of a conflict with Russia, there is no guarantee that the Georgians will join the war, as there is no guarantee that the US, Europe and NATO will support them; The war, whose dimensions and scope is definitely bigger than Ukraine, will have destructive effects as a result. Georgians know very well that today’s Ukraine needs more than twenty years of time and more than 700 billion dollars of financial resources in the most optimistic case to return to the situation ten months ago!

The US and its western allies, contrary to the claims and “peaceful gestures” they show on the issue of Ukraine, and in their declared positions, always show themselves as supporters of solutions and mechanisms to stop the war in Ukraine, But in practice, they welcome any option, even if it has a very low probability and percentage of success; which can keep the atmosphere of war in Ukraine and Russia’s surroundings alive; A problem that has been fully evident not only for Georgia but also for the world community.

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