Hamid Khoshayand – an expert on regional issues

In the last eight months, the United States, the main ally of the Zionist regime in the Gaza war, made several attempts to curb the threats from the northern front by threatening and luring the Lebanese Hezbollah. Still, these attempts not only did not work, but also, with the continuation of the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime in Lebanon, they escalated.

In recent days, the terrorist attack of the Zionist regime on a building in the “village of Juwaya” in southern Lebanon led to the martyrdom of one of the prominent commanders of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Of course, Hezbollah responded by launching a heavy missile and drone attack against important military positions in the Galilee. This has added to the “complexity of the situation” in this region and has sounded the alarm of a full-scale conflict between the Zionist regime and Lebanon.

The army of the Zionist regime, which has repeatedly threatened Lebanon with a military attack in the last eight months, has recently approved operational plans to attack Lebanon. Earlier, US Secretary of State Blinken told one of his Arab counterparts during his recent visit to the region that “(the) Israeli regime is planning to attack Lebanon.”

In response to the Zionist regime’s threats to attack Lebanon, Naim Qassem, Deputy Secretary General of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has stated: “If Israel wants to enter into an all-out war, we are ready for it, any widespread Israeli war against Lebanon will result in destruction and displacement in Israel; the Resistance is ready for battle and will never allow Israel to achieve any victory.”

Contrary to the field and political calculations of the officials of the Zionist regime, attacking Lebanon does not seem like a simple matter. If it happens, it will definitely present a “dangerous situation” to the Zionist regime, some of the most important of which are mentioned below:

One: Currently, Lebanon’s Hezbollah is in the “best condition” in terms of missile and drone reserves, combat capabilities, and the depth and range of access to the positions and military bases of the Zionist regime, and is ready to fight this regime at any level.

Despite the bellicose actions of the Zionist regime, until today, Hezbollah has made every effort to prevent the outbreak of a full-scale war and tried to keep the conflicts at a limited and controlled level, but this never means exercising restraint” against the Zionist regime and is not and should not be taken as a basis for “false calculations.”

Above all, Hezbollah acts in the direction of protecting Lebanon’s territorial integrity, security, and national interests. Therefore, if the Zionist regime enters into an all-out war with Lebanon and targets the territory of this country, it will face a heavy and decisive response from Hezbollah.

Two: The Zionist regime is planning to attack Lebanon and fight with Hezbollah, while it has failed in attacking Gaza and fighting with Hamas, which is far smaller and lower than Hezbollah in terms of territory and military power. The war in Gaza has turned the army of the Zionist regime, which has more than two-thirds of its combat and military power concentrated in Gaza and the West Bank, into an exhausted and depressed army with tens of thousands of dead, wounded, and mentally ill, and about 45% of its military equipment has lost and suffers from many problems.

This is in addition to 250,000 displaced people and more than 5 billion dollars in economic damage, a 22% decrease in GDP, and deep social and political turmoil inside the Occupied Territories, which is taking on new dimensions every day.

Three: The obstacles and factors “preventing” the start of another war by the Zionist regime are such that the prospect of a possible comprehensive attack on Lebanon is well known.

“Ishaq Brik,” a retired general of the Zionist army, published an editorial in “Ma’ariv newspaper” and wrote in this context: “We must tell the truth to the people that if we go to war in the north, a disaster will befall us that we are not prepared to bear in any way.” We don’t have it. We must tell the people that in such a war, 3000 missiles and drones will fall on us every day; Our infrastructure, including water, electricity, gas, transport, and industrial systems, will be destroyed. Our domestic front will not be prepared to endure such tragedies.” “Shaq Frielish,” the former deputy internal security adviser of the Zionist regime, also warned the officials of this regime about attacking Lebanon and said: “It is very dangerous to carry out large-scale operations in Lebanon as it could lead to a multi-front war. Following this possible attack, Israel’s domestic front and its vital military capabilities will be severely affected.

Shaul Goldstein, the executive director of the Zionist regime’s electricity network, also said: “Israel is not ready to fight on the northern front against Hezbollah because it is not in an interesting military situation. Hezbollah can easily destroy Israel’s electricity network, and after 72 hours of power outage, it will be impossible to live in Israel.”

Therefore, in such a situation where the Zionist regime and its “disintegrated” army are entirely immersed in the Gaza swamp and are facing severe political, social, demographic, security, and economic crises internally, any ground and air attack on Lebanon while Hezbollah is at the peak of readiness and has so far brought less than 10% of its strength to the battlefield in a controlled manner in the northern front, it is interpreted as nothing but “madness and suicide.” It is a clear issue that a week of conflict with Lebanon will leave casualties and damages in the hands of the Zionist regime as much as months of the Gaza war. At the same time, it will also confront the US in the region with resistance-oriented reactions and more problems.