The responsibility of the trio was to ensure that the president does not act in such a way as to harm the country’s interests and national security. Since Trump did not have the experience he initially accepted the three options, but he constantly stated that he had differences with these people and finally dismissed Tillerson and McMaster and appointed persons who endorsed his line of thinking. In fact, John Bolton replaced McMaster as National Security Advisor and Mike Pompeo replaced Tillerson. The two men have shown that they accept the views of Trump or at least serve his cause. Of course, the president of the United States also has differences with Secretary of Defense James Mathis but has so far failed to get rid of him.
After Pompeo and John Bolton came to power, the idea was put forward in America that a war cabinet has been formed at the White House. Along the two men, there was also mention of Ms Gina Haspel, who was Pompeo’s deputy when the latter was CIA director and took over the CIA after Pompeo was assigned secretary of state.
Regarding the views of the trio, mention can be made of their opposition to Russia, Iran, China and North Korea. They believe that the United States has enough power and ability to change the behaviour and policies of its competitors and enemies. They even believe they should use the war option if necessary. In the meantime, Bolton is more cynical than the other two about international laws and organizations. He is also one of the sponsors of the US invasion of Iraq.
Bolton, before being appointed national security advisor, published notes in the media that defended his past perspectives and urged the United States to use the option of force in consolidating its position. That is why when the trio took over rumours spread that a war cabinet has been formed in the United States.
In fact, in order to show that the madman theory is real and his threats are effective, Trump needed to pick up individuals for his team so that others would believe his threats. The truth is that with individuals such as Tillerson and McMaster, no one took Trump’s threats seriously, but when someone such as Bolton is appointed, other countries would find the threats to be serious. Trump chose the three with such logic and he believes he can control them and has made it clear to the trio that he is not seeking another war.
However, to date, we have seen the implications and consequences of the trio’s presence in some areas and issues. The first outcome is about agreements reached between the United States and Russia on short-range and intermediate-range nuclear weapons and Cold War treaties. Observers believe that the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces took place under the strong influence of John Bolton. Because Bolton in his works and books says he does not believe in disarmament and arms control. Thus, he has been able to persuade Trump either to withdraw from treaties or threaten to withdraw from treaties that for years have kept peace and stability between Russia and the United States as two great powers.
The second consequence is the divide on the two sides of the Atlantic; Bolton and Pompeo have no trust in strengthening NATO or the European Union and believe that Washington should not pay the costs. Because he says, when the United States pays the security costs of Europe and its allies, this will reduce the country’s status and the United States should stop the process.
The third consequence of the formation of this so-called war cabinet is in connection with the Middle East region and in particular the Islamic Republic of Iran. After the trio joined Trump’s team, he was able to quit the Iran Nuclear Deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and pursue a policy of sanctions and pressure against Iran. Some believe that if this policy of sanctions and pressures fail Trump may tend to accept the ideas of people like Bolton and take a more aggressive approach against Iran. Naturally, Iran is a big country in the region, and possible tensions between Tehran and Washington would expose the Middle East to serious threats and challenges.
The fourth outcome returns to Washington’s strategy vis-a-vis Riyadh. In other words, the United States in order to deal with Iran has given Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince much freedom of action. The US has given Riyadh free hand in the Yemen war and to manage its plans in Syria, Washington is acting beyond the Saudi capability.
The fifth consequence is the escalation of competition between the United States and China as a result of this outlook. Washington and Beijing used to interact with each other but have entered rivalry over the past one year which could even end in hostility. However, when tensions between the United States and a big power escalate it would have global consequences. But when it comes to regional tensions, the outcome would be limited to that particular region. Naturally, if tension develops between the US and Russia and China as two world powers, this may affect the world.
Of course, the outlook of Trump and his team is that such measures are in place to prevent the US decline and that Washington is taking such actions in order to stabilize its global position and promote it further.
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