In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Salar Seifoddini referred to the meeting between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the presidents of Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan on the sidelines of the European Union political meeting in Prague, and the Europe’s decision to send a civilian delegation to help demarcation of borders and stated: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the complex structure of border demarcation has created many problems, and the fate of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province, which is an area with 80 percent of the Armenian population, was among those challenges.

While explaining the border changes of the former Soviet provinces in different periods, he said: The Republic of Azerbaijan claimed that the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh are the same as Karabakh, and in drawing the borders we must go back prior to the beginning of the formation of the Soviet Union, in which period, for a while, the province of “Syunik” which is called “Zangezur”, belonged to the Republic of Azerbaijan. Therefore, they demand the south of Armenia, and even the government in exile called “Zangezur” in Turkey has been defined and a flag and a building has been considered for it!

Referring to the efforts of the Republic of Azerbaijan to create a corridor towards Nakhchivan, Seifoddini continued: In fact, if Ilham Aliyev is able at some point, he will claim sovereignty over the official borders and provinces of Armenia, and if he does not have the required ability, he will claim the passage of the corridor or a road.

He added: Other regional and extra-regional players are also trying to expand their influence by managing this challenge, and we are witnessing the competition between the US and France and the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, to the region. It was said that the Prague meeting was also held with the mediation and initiative of France and Hungary, where for the first time the heads of Yerevan, Baku and Ankara sat and talked together.

Stating that Baku is following a multi-layered geopolitical game, the expert on Caucasus affairs said: The Republic of Azerbaijan cooperates with Russia at some level and claims that its interests do not conflict with the geopolitical interests of Moscow; on another level, it continues the same game with Ankara, during which Ankara accompanies the expanding and occupying interests of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the territory of Armenia; at the next level, it is playing this game with Europe, which Brussels also accompanies with this game from the point of view of energy and exporting more gas, especially under the current gas crisis. Baku has positions for each of the parties and tries to keep them satisfied.

Seifoddini stated that Baku has also proposed views regarding the north and south corridors and more communication lines in negotiations with Iran, and noted that: Baku advances those levels of multiple relations based on national strength. Turkey is a member of NATO and has convergence with the West, and the energy issue is also important for them. Borders and no change in political borders of the region are important for Iran. For Russia, in addition to borders, the issue of gas and energy is also important, and the Republic of Azerbaijan can be an alternative to Russia’s gas to some extent. All these are the opposite puzzle in some cases and are aligned in other cases.

He emphasized: The Republic of Azerbaijan is trying to coordinate such approaches to the point that it can implement its final plan in a suitable position. Now, Baku feels that the right time has not come to implement the main and initial plan, which is the annexation of southern Armenia and creation of NATO’s Turani Corridor, because Iran has clearly announced its decisive policy in this regard, therefore it is not possible to realize such a goal and strategy.

The analyst of the Caucasus affairs stated that now Baku is trying to get Yerevan to declare that it recognizes the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and in return they declare that they recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia, and explained: Baku wants to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue in the form of this approach and put an end to Armenia’s claim over it, and then call the Karabakh issue as its internal issue. After this, it would cover up its wrong and unacceptable policies, including forced migration, pressure and killing of the Armenian minority, arguing that they are internal issues and others have no right to interfere.

Recalling that preserving the security and existence of the Armenians of Karabakh has been one of Iran’s considerations, Seifoddini pointed to the efforts of the Republic of Azerbaijan for forced migration of the residents of that region.

He considered the Prague negotiations as a step to internalize the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian minority, and regarding Russia’s position in supporting Armenia in that conflict, said: Russia has not always supported Armenia, and its performance in supporting the Republic of Azerbaijan and in the conflicts of 1905 and 1921 is clear. In fact, Russia always tries to balance that relationship and present itself as the final arbiter. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, since the Republic of Azerbaijan tried to define itself along with Western structures, Russia has moved towards supporting Armenia to some extent; but Moscow has always tried to secure its interests by standing in the middle.

Seifoddini continued: Russia did not provide special support to Armenia in the 2020 war and even turned a blind eye to Turkey’s intervention in favor of the Republic of Azerbaijan. In 2017, “Alexander Dugin” publicly announced that Karabakh belongs to the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Saying that Russia does not regulate its reactions with the meetings in Prague or Brussels and that the European Union has mediated in the case of Karabakh many times, he added: The impact of the final agreement and the results of the processes on Russia’s national security is important for Moscow. Under the current situation, the war in Ukraine has created great challenges for Russia and has become a matter of prestige and strategic priority for Moscow.

Seifoddini added: However, Russia has enough influence to be able to maintain its weight in this conflict and if it is unhappy with the approached, it will be able to announce it through different channels to Baku and Yerevan. They also usually try not to take an action that is too far from Russia’s red lines; but Russia’s reactions have been slow in recent years and it cannot make quick decisions.