In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Seyed Reza Mirtaher pointed to the NATO Secretary General’s concern over Russia’s readiness for a long war in Ukraine and while explaining the developments on the battlefield, stated: The ninth month of the war in Ukraine is going on, and still there is no prospect for its end. Although proposals have been made to establish peace between the two sides, they have not accepted it; including the proposal made by Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, which was not accepted by the Ukraine President, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Saying that the United States has practically prepared the ground for the continuation of the war in Ukraine and even its deepening and expansion, he added: This issue, by including an 800 million dollar budget in the 2023 defense budget and proposing a 38 billion dollar bill to send the US military aid to Ukraine, is noteworthy. At the same time, the US close allies, especially England, also want continuation of the war, and recently British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, during his visit to Ukraine, announced that new packages of British weapons are on the way.

The analyst of international affairs emphasized: The set of such issues leads us to the conclusion that the United States still wants to continue the war for various reasons. Of course, there are some turning points in this field; among others, Russia has announced that sending those weapons that can decisively change the outcome of the war is their red line. In this regard, the announcement of the US decision to send “Patriot” air defense and anti-missile defense systems to Ukraine, has followed Russia’s strong reaction and announcement that in this case, it will target those countries and shipments, and will consider it as a direct confrontation with Russia.

Saying that it seems that the US intends to provide that system to Ukraine, Mirtaher said: In this case, Kiev’s ability to deal with cruise missiles launched from Russian bombers against different regions of Ukraine will increase greatly, while the sky of Ukraine will become very unsafe for Russian fighters, and this issue will have an extremely negative impact on the operational efficiency and combat effectiveness of Russian aircraft and missiles.

He continued: If those weapons are sent by the United States, it can be predicted that the Russians will probably take a similar step, and this step will greatly increase the possibility of a confrontation between NATO and Russia. As the Secretary General of NATO regularly warns that Russia should not be underestimated. Of course, at the same time, some Western officials and experts emphasize that Russia does not intend to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Referring to the situation on the battlefield and the advances of the two sides in the field of battle, the expert on international affairs added: Under the current situation, it seems that due to the winter season, the level of conflict intensity has decreased and the parties are more busy consolidating their positions; although the Russians have recently made territorial gains in the Donetsk Province which, from Moscow’s point of view, the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are considered part of the Russian territory, but in any case, it is now expected that the Russians will not push their pressure on the battle fronts but on the areas behind the fronts.

Mirtaher said: With the arrival of the harsh winter in Ukraine, the Russians attacked the infrastructure facilities of Ukraine in different parts of the country in a targeted manner, especially using drones and cruise missiles, to the extent that it is said some 80 percent of Ukraine is now in blackout and that Zelensky has asked the citizens to leave Kiev.

Saying that the strategy of the Russians is by increasing pressure on the performance of the Ukrainians force them to surrender or reduce the intensity of their attacks, he continued: This is a measure that has taken place in many wars, including the Second World War, and the allies inflicted heavy blows on the fighting ability of the Nazi Germany with very intense bombings. Now, Russia has adopted the same policy, and the reason why Ukrainians are seriously seeking to receive the Patriot air system from the US is that they can use it to effectively in order to deal with Russian missiles and even drones.

As for the concerns expressed by some European officials over continuation of the war, he considered it more from the officials of certain countries such as France, or the opposition parties and personalities, and added: The right-wing and nationalist parties are concerned over the sharp reduction in weaponry reserves and the heavy losses of the conflict in the war in Ukraine. Of course, this issue is true to a large extent regarding European countries; because it has entailed serious economic and social consequences for them.

He emphasized: Unlike the United States, which spends the highest cost of the world’s military and has approved a military budget of 850 billion dollars for 2023, many European countries were reluctant to strengthen their military power and increase those budgets until the Ukraine war and, by the way, one of Trump’s serious differences with some European countries was in this regard.

Mirtaher reminded: There is a significant time gap between the announcement of the increase in military budgets and its implementation by European countries and it is not like that as soon as the funds are increased, equipment and ammunition will also be received. It will take time to buy them either from foreign countries or through domestic production. Therefore, there is now a concern in Europe that continuation of the war in Ukraine and especially continuous shipment of ammunition, such as artillery shells and rockets and anti-tank missiles, will deplete the weapons arsenal of European countries.

Saying that in the past 10 months, Russia was able to largely neutralize the effects of Western sanctions or adapt itself to them, he added: In this way, it is expected that the Russians will gradually reach a balanced and stabilized situation, according to which they can supply their weaponry needs and receive them from some countries. In this way, they will still continue the war.