Mohamadreza Raouf Sheibani[i]

The exceptions are USA, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia continues to pursue the failed policies of “burned land” in her war in Yemen and “excluding Iran” in any regional arrangements. There is a unilateral attempt by the United States in order to change the regional order in favor of Israel.  

The question of Palestine

The question of Palestine, as the main question in the Middle East and the cause of many crises in our region, remains unresolved. Trump’s approach, along with Netanyahu’s irresponsible and harsh positions, has increased frustration among the Palestinians and escalating the situation in the occupied territories. In this context, a new round of uprisings and tensions in Palestine will be the main possibility.  The Trump’s deal of the century on Palestine issue, which was not consulted with anybody, even with her European partners, raised the possibility of further tensions in Palestinian territory.

Possible unrest In Lebanon

In Lebanon, the parliamentary elections were held well and without any security or political problems. The Lebanese are now waiting for a political consensus between the Lebanese groups to form their government.

Certainly, prolonging the process of forming a government in Lebanon provides the conditions for a new phase of unrest. The role of Israel in this regard should not be ignored. Of course, Hezbollah of Lebanon, along with her heavy responsibility in fighting against terrorism inside and outside Lebanon, has shown responsible behavior during the parliamentary elections as well as the current stage in forming the government.  

Stability in Iraq

In Iraq, the process of parliamentary election and the election of the President and the Prime Minister, indicate the relative political stability in the country in the foreseeable future.  It seems that Saudi is going to accept the realities in Iraq and ready to play within the game rules.

Syria, opposition yet interested in Regime Change

In Syria, the process of political settlement took a serious and principled form. The three guarantors of Astana meeting, with the assistance of the United Nations and its Special envoy in Syria, after Tehran summit, are finalizing the necessary tools for beginning the important round of political dialogue between the Syrians. But the start of this political process is still facing obstacles. The approach of the opposition is one of the reasons for the lack of progress. They want what they could not get it on the battlefield to achieve it through influencing the political mechanism and through fundamental changes in the decision-making process. It seems that the opposition and some of their supporters are still following the policy of regime change in Syria, not the reform and sharing in the national government.

Syria’s Facts

Other facts on the Syrian issue;

• The Syrian military situation is closely linked to three main factors: the situation in Idlib, the Turkish army’s occupation of some Syria territory, and US military occupation policy. In my opinion, if these issues are not resolved, the Syrian crisis will not be resolved.
• The Turkish approach in Idlib case is an attempt to cause too much concern within European countries.
• On Turkey-Russia agreement on Idlib, it can be said that this plan does not represent a shift on the political situation in Syria, It is not a turning point, but It will be an appropriate way out, that will prevent Idlib, which has about three million civilians, from the bloody battle.
• Israel is still trying to change the title of the crisis from the Syrian crisis to a regional one. The Iranian presence in Syria is a legitimate presence and Iran will remain in Syria as needed. It is not in the interest of stability and calm in Syria that the issue of Iranian forces becomes a controversial issue. It is better to be the concern of occupying forces in Syria and its future consequences.
• In this regard, Iran is unlikely to think to establish a military base in Syria. The strengthening and equipping of the Syrian army is Iran’s strategic objective, which is in contrast with Israel’s military strategy vis-à-vis the army of its neighbors.
• An Israeli strategic fault in a Russian plane crash leads to the deployment of the S-300 strategic missiles as one of the consequences of this event, which changed the military balance of the region at the expense of Europe.

[i] Senior fellow of IPIS

Ex-ambassador of Iran to Syria

Ex-Deputy minister on Arabian affairs