Arian Noorani– International Affairs Expert

The water crisis in West Asia is no longer merely an environmental or managerial issue, but has become a geopolitical variable that can both drive internal instability and lay the groundwork for forced regional cooperation. In 2026, amid intensifying climate pressures, economic sanctions, and the erosion of vital infrastructure, water has become one of the few domains that directly link internal security and foreign policy.

Can the water crisis transform from an internal threat into an opportunity for applied diplomacy and forced cooperation with regional rivals? It seems that under conditions of “water bankruptcy,” the logic of survival can compel even rivals to engage in minimal interaction.

Internal Crisis with Geopolitical Consequences

Analyses published by the Atlantic Council indicate that the water crisis in recent years has become one of the drivers of social discontent in West Asia, and the concept of “water bankruptcy” has entered international literature. The depletion of groundwater resources, the drying of wetlands, and the erosion of agriculture not only weaken the local economy but also fuel internal migration and social tensions.

Simultaneously, reports from the European Parliament Think Tank emphasize that part of the social protests in West Asia are intertwined with environmental demands, and the link between environment and politics has transformed the water crisis from a technical issue into a strategic variable.

Water and the Possibility of Forced Cooperation with Regional Rivals

The distinguishing feature of this crisis is that, unlike many security files, its solution is inherently transnational. For instance, Iran’s water resources are linked with its neighbors, Iraq, Turkey, and Afghanistan, and climate change also has a regional nature. Under such circumstances, even governments in confrontation in the political and security spheres will be compelled to engage in technical cooperation in the water sector.

An analysis by the Atlantic Council on technological capacities in water management pointed out that technological cooperation can take shape independently of political trends. Although the realization of such cooperation seems unlikely in the short term, its very proposal underscores the reality that water can serve as a conduit for informal diplomacy.

A report by the Royal United Services Institute also warns that the collapse of ecosystems in West Asia could lead to transnational security crises and push governments towards emergency cooperation models. In such a framework, water is considered not only a source of conflict but also a basis for “forced cooperation”; cooperation born not of trust, but of the necessity for survival.

Applied Diplomacy in Crisis Conditions

One of the fundamental challenges is the deep mistrust between Iran and some Western actors. A note in Eurasia Review suggested that water diplomacy does not necessarily require grand political agreements and can take shape through technical mechanisms, joint projects, or mediation by international organizations.

The proposed model could include three levels: first, regional technical cooperation for managing shared basins; second, technology transfer in the field of water recycling and desalination through non-political mechanisms; and third, defining joint environmental projects with the support of multilateral institutions. Such an approach moves the water crisis out of the arena of political confrontation and into the domain of shared risk management.

In this framework, water becomes a geopolitical tool, not necessarily as an offensive weapon, but rather as a lever to compel actors to engage in dialogue. In a region where many political lines of communication are blocked, environmental channels can serve as lower-cost pathways for interaction.

The West Asia water crisis in 2026 is no longer merely a sign of managerial inefficiency or climate pressure, but a mirror of the geopolitical transformations in West Asia. Water can be both a factor of internal instability and a foundation for emergency regional cooperation. As long as geopolitical rivalries persist, the logic of survival and the prevention of ecosystem collapse can compel even hostile actors to engage in limited ways. Turning a crisis into an opportunity requires moving beyond a purely security-oriented perspective and recognizing that environmental security is part of national and regional security.

The strategic lesson for West Asia is that if water is not managed, it will become a weapon against regional stability. Still, if it is properly defined within the framework of applied diplomacy, it can serve as a lever to reduce tension and, at a minimum, rebuild trust among rivals.

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