Category: Strategic Perspective

Afghanistan and the Space for Geopolitical Actors

Strategic Council Online: In the wake of the Coronavirus crisis that has engulfed the entire world significant developments are underway in Afghanistan engineered by the United States and supported by other world and regional powers which cast doubt on the prospects of restoring stability and security to Afghanistan. The US-led peace agreement with the Taliban will bring Afghanistan into a new phase of geopolitical action that will shape regional and trans-regional forces in relation to Afghanistan’s ethnic, religious and political structure.
Ebrahim Romina – Assistant Professor of Political Geography at Tarbiat Modares University

Challenges Facing New Iraqi Prime Minister Designate

Strategic Council Online: Adnan Al-Zurfi’s dual citizenship and his desire to align with Washington will spark opposition from some coalitions and political groups in Iraq who may prevent his government from being cleared by the parliament. Therefore, it can be said that the fate of Al-Zurfi will not be better than that of Al-Allawi and the new nominee for the prime minister must already consider his possible failure to form a government.
Jafar Ghanadbashi – Middle East Affairs Expert

Turkish Army’s Approach on Idlib after Truce with Russia

Strategic Council Online: A university professor said there was no consensus on maintaining a long-term ceasefire in Idlib, noting that sooner or later this fragile ceasefire would collapse because Turkey has realized Bashar Assad will stay in power and therefore Ankara will need a bargaining chip to protect its interests.

Putin’s Continued Presidency with Constitutional Reform?

Strategic Council Online: Given that the Russian Constitutional Court has upheld the parliament’s constitutional amendment, it can be expected that if nothing special happens, Vladimir Putin will be able to run for the president again in 2024 and if he remains in power he can be extends his tenure for two 3-year terms, up to 2036.
Shoaib Bahman – Expert on Russian Affairs

Scenarios in Afghanistan

Strategic Council Online: At present, there are three currents in Afghanistan claiming power: Abdullah Abdullah and the Jihadists, the Liberal Democrats represented by Ashraf Ghani, and the Taliban. Zalmay Khalilzad seems to be trying to balance these three currents in order to overcome the crisis in Afghanistan.
Pir Mohammad Molazehi – Expert on Afghanistan

New Balance of Power against Turkey

Strategic Council Online: A former ambassador and Middle East expert says the recent developments in Arab states against Turkey are expected to create a new balance of power. “If Erdogan fails to pay attention to the issue, the axis is likely to boost its status against Turkey in the future.

Shaky Foundations of Israeli Coalition Gov’t and Its Foreign Implications

Strategic Council Online: A researcher on Zionist regime studies enumerating the characteristics of Benny Gantz’s possible government said he does not have the experience and special international relations that Netanyahu had and because of a number of issues both domestically and internationally it will have a weaker government.

Iran-UK Post-Brexit Relations

Strategic Council Online: A university professor has said that Brian Hook’s trips to Europe with an anti-Iranian agenda do not carry the weight of the past three years and the US has concluded that the sanctions strategy has literally failed. He added that the strategy of communicating with the UK should be put on the agenda and various aspects of cooperation should be considered.

US Elections and Forecasting Future Ups and Downs

Strategic Council Online: An international relations professor said Donald Trump’s chances of winning the next US election are higher and Democratic candidates are facing serious challenges in defeating him. He said in order to be able to defeat Trump they need to bring the cast of their ballots to defeat Trump. And if this cast does not vote for any reason, Trump has his fixed vote.

Reasons for OPEC’s Failure to Reduce production & Supply

Strategic Council Online: Russia’s creeping penetration in OPEC as a mate to OPEC and its non-cooperation with OPEC in its latest bid to avert further damage to member states shows that OPEC’s monopoly power in the oil market before being defeated by America’s growing power in production and extraction of Shale oil is struck by the double standards strategy and unilateralism of its members with non-member allies.

Reza Majidzadeh – Researcher in Political Economy of Development

One Virus, One World: A Glance at Effects of Coronavirus on Economy

Strategic Council Online: A university professor said the Corona crisis will affect the state of the global economy and slow its growth. He noted however, one must not worry much about the world entering a new crisis because in most of the major countries involved in the Corona crisis the skills of governance are high enough not to let the global economy fall into a crisis similar to the 1990s and 2008-2009, namely the collapse of the dominoes of major economic sectors.

Iraqi Popular Protests and US Projection against Iran

Strategic Council Online: An expert on West Asian affairs said the trend of America’s expulsion from Iraq has started, adding that the Americans were trying to accuse Iran before the public opinion of Iraq by suggesting that the attack on al-Taji camp was Iran’s work while this is a projection and escape forward. He said the Iraqi people’s protest against the US occupation in Iraq has nothing to do with Iran.

International Recognition of US-Taliban Peace Agreement

Strategic Council Online: Adoption of a UN Security Council resolution endorsing the US-led peace deal with the Taliban means its international recognition but it has not yet become US internal law and has no executive guarantees.
Seyed Mostafa Hashemi – PhD in Geopolitics and Regional Affairs Expert

US Observation about Recent Russian-Turkish Deal on Idlib

Strategic Council Online: A West Asian affairs expert said US opposition to a UN Security Council statement in support of the recent ceasefire agreement between Turkey and Russia was over fears that Russia will hold the upper hand in the talks. He added that the agreement reached in the talks on Idlib was in the interest of the government of Bashar Assad.

Three Scenarios on Wave of Arrests in Saudi Arabia

Strategic Council Online: King Salman has persuaded Saudi princes by a number of tools such as repression, appeasement, relative consensus and buying loyalty that the Saudi gerontocracy structure needs mobility by a young prince from the House of Sudairi who would simultaneously maintain the territorial integrity, survival of the kingdom and power preservation. There is a strong connection in the House of Al Saud.
Kamran Karami – Arabian Peninsula researcher

Prospect of Peace Talks in Light of New Developments in Afghanistan

Strategic Council Online: It looks like eventually US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who is in Kabul, will intervene in the current governance process in Afghanistan and bring Abdullah Abdullah to the negotiating table: A situation similar to what happened when John Kerry was in office; that is today a new government will be formed with some differences. In this new government, space will also be opened for the Taliban, and Zalmay will probably succeed in bringing the three currents – Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah and Taliban to the negotiating table to pull Afghanistan out of the current situation.
Pir Mohammad Molazehi – Indian Subcontinent Affairs Expert

French Attempt to Replace American Hegemony in the Region

Strategic Council Online: Former Iranian ambassador to Romania and Hungary says Emmanuel Macron intends to reduce or take over the US role in the West Asian region. “Whether France is powerful enough to accomplish this task or whether it has the tools to do so will be decided in the future,” he said.

Turkey’s International Isolation on Idlib Crisis

Strategic Council Online: The Ankara government has again resorted to the traditional policy of using the leverage of immigrants and refugees to drag Europe into the war in Idlib; but this policy failed to draw support from European countries for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Ankara government, but unlike previous times that they had pledged a series of donations, this time fully condemned Turkey’s “blackmail.”
Shoaib Bahman: International Affairs Expert

Russia-Turkey Agreement and Prospect of Sustained Ceasefire in Idlib

Strategic Council Online: An expert on Middle East affairs said that the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Turkey is more likely to be in Syria’s favour. He said, given Turkey’s plight in Syria as well as the capability of the Syrian government and army to drive foreign forces out of their country, Turkey has to accept a new agreement.

Corona and the Need for Regional, Global Cooperation

Strategic Council Online: The world has been in the throes of Corona Disease (COVID-19) since late 2019: A malicious virus, which can have many lessons for the vulnerable world. Within a short time, it crosses global boundaries and enters other spaces affected by economic entanglement and spatial functions.
Ebrahim Romina, Assistant Professor of Political Geography and Geopolitics, Tarbiat Modares University