Hussein Ahmadi – West Asia Affairs Expert
Iraq, weakened by internal conflicts in the past decades, is now seeking a new position as a key player in Arab diplomacy. This move can be analyzed within the framework of diplomatic representation, where states redefine their political identities through multilateral relations.

However, Al-Sharaa’s invitation raises questions due to his past as a former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and his ties to extremist groups. Although Al-Sharaa has tried to distance himself from his past since 2017, accusations by the UN Security Council and Western countries, who still consider Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham a terrorist organization, make it difficult to trust him. The meeting between Iraq’s Culture Minister, Ahmed Al-Badrani, and his Syrian Counterpart, emphasizing cultural cooperation, reflects Baghdad’s public diplomacy efforts to build civilizational ties with Damascus under West Asia’s political-security framework. Yet, these initiatives may falter amid doubts surrounding Al-Sharaa.

This diplomatically cautious, realism-driven message indicates Iraq’s attempt to balance regional ambitions with the risks of controversial choices, such as hosting Syria’s interim leader.

Domestic Political Consequences
The invitation to Al-Sharaa has significant political repercussions in Iraq, particularly for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government. Widespread protests on social media and statements by political groups, including the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq movement led by Qais al-Khazali, reflect deep dissatisfaction with this decision. Khazali warned that Al-Sharaa’s presence could lead to his judicial arrest—a claim rooted in allegations of his activities in Iraq, including ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS in the 2000s. Reports suggest Al-Sharaa used the alias “Amjad Muzaffar Hussein” during that period, posing as an Iraqi citizen, which has angered many Iraqis.

These tensions highlight deep divisions in Iraq’s political scene. Opposition groups view Al-Sharaa’s presence as legitimizing a controversial figure, disrespecting past victims of violence, and whitewashing terrorism. In contrast, Al-Sudani’s government justifies the invitation as a step toward regional stability and Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League. This clash, intensifying ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary elections, could lead to domestic political instability. Analysts like Iraqi political researcher Alla Mustafa argue that an existing arrest warrant for Al-Sharaa could legally challenge the government, especially if the invitation bypassed judicial coordination.

From a regional perspective, Al-Sharaa’s potential attendance could bolster Syria’s interim government within the Arab League. Having participated in the emergency Arab Summit in Cairo (March 2025), his presence in Baghdad may strengthen Damascus’s ties with the Arab world. However, doubts about his commitment to reform and distancing from his past cast uncertainty over this positive outcome. His name change and apparent break from Al-Qaeda—seen by the West as a legitimacy-seeking tactic—have further eroded trust.

Security Challenges
One of the biggest challenges for Iraq is the security risks tied to Al-Sharaa’s potential presence. His extremist-linked past heightens the threat of violent reactions from armed groups. Omar Mohammed, a researcher at George Washington University, warns that this invitation could trigger organized protests or targeted violence, particularly from factions viewing Al-Sharaa as a threat to Iraq’s security. Viral videos of Iraqi citizens threatening Al-Sharaa have amplified these concerns.

According to Fadhil Abu Ragheef, a political analyst, Iraq’s government is committed to securing Al-Sharaa and other Arab leaders. However, Iraq’s complex security landscape complicates this pledge. Reports suggest some groups may disrupt the summit through intimidation or leaking information to opposition parties. These threats, interpreted through tense geopolitics, make the summit a test of the government’s security capabilities. Some social media sources claim Al-Sharaa may send Syria’s Foreign Minister, Asaad Al-Shaybani, instead—a move that could ease tensions but diminish the summit’s diplomatic impact.

Ultimately, the Baghdad Arab Summit is a unique opportunity for Iraq to solidify its regional role, but its success hinges on managing domestic and security tensions. Whether Al-Shar’ attends or not, the outcome will reflect the Arab world’s political complexities and the Arab League’s challenges. This development, showcasing Al-Sudani’s cautious realism and diplomatic activism, could mark a turning point in Iraq-Syria relations—if handled correctly. Yet, Al-Sharaa’s controversial past and lack of definitive evidence of genuine change place Iraq in a problematic position, requiring a thorough cost-benefit analysis of this invitation, which appears to favor Al-Sharaa more.