Jafar Haqpanah – Expert on Afghanistan Issues

Recently, we have witnessed Pakistan using its high military capacity to operate against groups that are considered to be the so-called remnants of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, based in Afghanistan and supported by the Taliban. This type of operation is considered unprecedented at the current stage when the special representative of the Pakistani government has changed, and some think that he might smooth the path of diplomacy. On the other hand, the Taliban’s military response was also unique in its kind and is considered a very important event. The Taliban had previously announced that it would definitely retaliate against this operation and immediately retaliated against this operation. For the first time, Taliban special forces penetrated deep into Pakistani territory in the border areas and were also met with air support. In fact, for the first time, the Taliban made significant use of the remnants of the air force that had been established since the time of the Afghan Republic and under US support.

Regardless of what military achievement this form of Taliban operation has had, the very fact of addressing this issue is important in its own right. The more important point is to pay attention to the Taliban literature. Their official statement refers to an imaginary line and does not mention the common border or the Durand Line. Such an approach in the Taliban political literature is very thought-provoking. It indicates that the challenge between the two countries goes far beyond issues such as support for the Pakistani Taliban movement, differences in economic matters, or Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. It also encompasses a larger geopolitical issue. The coincidence of these events and tensions with strengthening the Pashtun movement in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which has a larger population of Pashtuns compared to Afghanistan, is also important.

The Taliban’s approach to these tensions showed that the country is turning to asymmetrical means to regulate its relations with other countries and sees its capacity in this direction as high. Perhaps the Taliban want and are motivated to use such means in relations with other countries. This could have many negative consequences for regional security. Therefore, these countries should, while consulting with each other, try to put the Taliban on the path of greater responsibility and create an obstacle to their threat against others.

Pakistan’s increasing strictness towards the presence of Afghan refugees and its serious intention to expel them, as well as the continuation of the media war between the parties, indicate that despite the desire to maintain strategic relations between the Taliban leadership in Kandahar and the main power core in Islamabad, specifically the army and ISI, there is serious potential for tensions at other and lower levels and their continuation is predictable.

In a general conclusion, it can be said that the tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan was predictable under the rule of any regime. That is, on the one hand, as long as Pakistan adopts this approach towards Afghanistan as its strategic depth, and on the other hand, Afghanistan has a power vacuum and weak governance that turns the country into a region for proxy games, this situation will probably continue, and it is unlikely that this form of tension and recent clashes will be the last round of conflict between these two neighboring countries.