Hamid Khoshayand – Regional Affairs Expert

A new period in Syria’s contemporary history is emerging, and its political future cannot be discussed with certainty.

In analyzing and accurately understanding the recent developments in Syria, including the “perspective of Islamic Resistance” in the region and the world, there are some points worth considering, the most important of which are mentioned, given the importance of the upcoming developments:

One: Three categories of domestic, regional, and international factors were involved in the emergence of the current situation in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad from power, and the role of external variables, especially the United States, the Zionist regime, and Turkey, was “determining.”

Internal factors can also be analyzed in this framework, but what is clear is that the current situation in Syria is the result of a precise and complex “American-Zionist” design with the support of “Turkey.”

Two; Some insist on introducing Bashar al-Assad’s domestic policy and economic problems as the main reasons for his fall from power. It is no secret that Bashar al-Assad faced weaknesses and negligence in domestic politics, but it should be noted that in addition to the shortcomings and type of governance, a large part of Syria’s internal problems, which were increasing in number every day, were affected by “external factors,” especially “US sanctions.”

Despite the internal challenges and the importance they have, if the “external element” were not behind the recent developments in Syria, the overthrow of the country’s political system would not have been possible so easily in the current circumstances.

The “severe economic situation” in Syria during the Bashar al-Assad era was primarily due to international and regional “sanctions” led by the United States, which severely weakened the Syrian economy, especially in the last 10 years, and also affected other social, political, military, etc. aspects.

Economic problems, especially in recent years and following the US “Caesar” Act, had expanded to such an extent that they practically halted the process of rebuilding the army in the areas of infrastructure, equipment, salaries, benefits, etc., which had faced various damages during the war with ISIS. This, in turn, paved the way for a reduction in the motivation for defense and hope in the army and security services, as well as the expansion of the network of infiltration and espionage, information gathering, the successful advancement of psychological operations, cognitive and perceptual warfare, internal divisions and disputes, etc., and ultimately paralyzed the army in confronting the advance of Tahrir al-Sham.

Three; Turkey is one of the leading “factors” of the recent developments in Syria, whose role must of course be analyzed under the strategic policies of the United States and NATO. Although Turkey is only one of the main winners of Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in the short term, Ankara can never bring a government aligned with itself to power in Syria. Even if Tahrir al-Sham attempts to form a stable government in Syria, which is impossible, in the medium term, it will become a major threat to Turkey, which shares an 830-kilometer border with Syria.

Certainly, Turkey’s dual role as a driving force in the recent developments in Syria will gradually put more pressure on Ankara in practice.

Four; Considering the set of field and non-field conditions, the plurality of domestic armed groups, interested actors with aligned and sometimes conflicting goals, their interests and strategic priorities, and the state of the surrounding environment, especially the expansionism of the Zionist regime, a stable and secure environment for this country cannot be expected in the short term.

Meanwhile, while the coalition of opposition and armed groups constitutes a diverse collection of small and large armed groups with different ideologies (37 groups), the nature of the future political system and the main force in power is not clear to anyone. It seems that Syria will enter a period of disorder and chaos for an indefinite period.

Five: In the most optimistic case, the groups and elements that are the main protagonists of the developments in Syria today play the role of a “tool and executor” and will not have a secure position in Syria’s future. They will gradually be eliminated or sidelined by the main “designers” because they do not correspond to the vision that the main designers have considered for Syria’s future.

A vision whose foundations for its formation are already visible in Syria and with the crimes that the Zionist regime is committing will certainly face a reaction from society in the future, especially from the Syrian youth, and will place them against America and the Zionist regime. As the Supreme Leader emphasized in his recent speech, the zealous Syrian youth will certainly rise up and play their worthy role with perseverance and resistance. Of course, this work in Syria may take time, but it is certain.

Six; The fall of Bashar al-Assad from power never means weakening the axis of resistance. The Islamic Resistance is not a land that can collapse or fail by removing or occupying part of it and be left out of the power geometry in the region and the world.

The Resistance, which is essentially a thought and school, was formed in the most difficult times and with very few resources in the face of the great and dominant powers of the world. It grew in difficulty and confrontation with powerful enemies and continued on its path with strength.

The fact that the political and media circles of the United States and the Israeli regime believe that the fall of Bashar al-Assad from power will cause the decline of the Islamic Resistance or weaken it is due to the “misconceptions” they have about the Resistance.

An accurate assessment of the developments ahead of the Islamic Resistance shows its future to be bright. With the recent developments in Syria, although there may be changes in the Islamic Resistance’s “tactical” areas, there will be no disruption or change in its macro strategies and anti-American and anti-Zionist approaches.