Vague Prospect of West-Russia Tensions over Ukraine

2022/04/10 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online - Opinion: The assumption that the West will take control of the situation in the Ukraine crisis through rhetorique and even sanctions is as dubious and beyond the rational framework of analysis as Moscow asserting conclusively that it has the control of the situation in the war in Ukraine. Pouria Nabipour - PhD in political science and international relations

Litigation, international law

Since the Crimea event in 2014, the West has portrayed Russia as a state that not only tears the book of international law, but also claims Moscow’s involvement in the Trump election and open support for Le Pen in France and right-wing political forces in other European countries actively undermines stability in the West.

Moscow, meanwhile, says Biden’s labeling Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” has pushed US-Russian relations to the brink of collapse, and summoned the US ambassador to the country over Biden’s recent unforgivable remarks. Following the passage of a UN Human Rights Council resolution for the establishment of a Commission of Inquiry, the United States and 44 other countries are working together to investigate possible abuses and violations.

Further investigations are under way by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has also asked Russia, in an order it has issued, to immediately suspend its military operations in Ukraine, declaring that it is deeply concerned about Moscow’s use of force.

Under international law, there is a clear definition of war crime, and the most likely way in which Putin can be defined as a war criminal, through the recognized legal doctrine, is command responsibility. If commanders order or know or are in a situation where they are aware of the occurrence or commission of a crime and do not taken any action to prevent it, they can be held liable legally.

But Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and does not send any defendants to the court headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands. Interestingly, the United States also does not recognize the jurisdiction of the court. In addition, Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, therefore it can prevent the adoption of any resolution to refer a war crime investigation case to this body.

Russia’s strategy in face of West’s tougher strategy

The events of recent weeks do not seem to leave enough room to reduce the deep rift between Russia and Western powers; but given the countless challenges to Washington’s advance in the Middle East, East Asia, and indeed the failure to date to fundamentally change Russia’s policy toward Ukraine, the question arises that what might the West’s tougher strategy include?

The US military presence in Central Europe, the increase in US military support for Poland and the Baltic countries and NATO’s advance eastward are also major obstacles to peace and stability in Ukraine. This “European reassurance” strategy, which is in fact a long-term policy of containment, may be satisfactory in the short term for some European capitals that want to resolve disputes with Moscow (though not at any cost), but it will not be pleasant in the long run.

While the escalation of the crisis with Moscow has immediately led to an energy crisis, rising immigration costs to European countries and even threats to food security in Europe, further EU-US sanctions are unlikely to fundamentally change the game in the long run. From Europe’s pressing challenges due to Brexit and nationalist trends, from its heavy reliance on Russia’s energy resources to the economic woes in the euro zone, there is practically very little room for investment in a tough strategy to counter Russia that can go and act beyond the destructive power of sanctions.

At present, there is no sign of a common vision between Russia and Western countries that can lead to the resolution of regional disputes and creation of an acceptable security and trade environment. NATO’s current policies and recent verbal attacks have certainly increased misunderstandings and mistrust, and could have irreversible effects on the process of possible peace talks and implementation of any reciprocal commitments in the implementation of the ceasefire and peace.

At the same time, although the risk of escalating tensions due to the conflict and rhetoric cannot be completely ruled out and continuation of the conflict may be turned into a “new normal situation”, the prospect of any NATO intervention despite the threats is out of reach and it seems that neither Russian nor NATO do not not intend to resort to armed confrontation.

Russia’s main strategy, along with efforts to lift sanctions, will be to focus on creating mechanisms to neutralize sanctions instruments. At the same time, there is no immediate indication that Moscow will reconsider the situation in Crimea or its strategy in the eastern part of Ukraine, which is now under the control of Russian forces.

Increased NATO political and field mobilization to arm, train and direct military groups, and in particular the aggressive stance of NATO members and military action by countries such as Poland and Germany in sending weapons to Ukraine, will lead to increase Russian distrust of possible proposals in the forthcoming negotiations.

Moscow will also seek to uphold Russia’s foreign policy principles which the defense of the Russians, what Moscow considers to be the basic principles of international relations, increases the equality of sovereignty and the right of current governments to resist interference that increases prospects for regime change and includes tough defense of national security and commercial interests.

Therefore, the prospect of an early settlement of the conflict seems unlikely, and Moscow’s uncertainty about long-term US and European policies will ultimately justify Russia’s tougher policies.

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

LATEST CONTENT

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading

Últimas publicaciones

Zionist Regime’s Post-War Map for Gaza

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on Middle East issues said: After nearly 150 days have passed since the attacks of Israeli planes on Gaza and the unprecedented genocide in this city, regional and international efforts to end the Gaza crisis have intensified.

Reasons for Inaction & Inefficiency of Intl Organizations in Providing Aid to Gaza

Strategic Council Online: An expert on regional issues said: With the start of the Gaza war, many major powers and international organizations not only did not take honest action to support the defenseless Palestinian people, but instead, with their support for the actions of the Zionist regime, they caused their crimes to increase over the past five months.

France and the Two-State Solution in Occupied Territories

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An expert on regional issues said: The announcement of France’s agreement with the formation of two states in the Occupied Territories is a measure to raise the international image of France and reduce domestic pressure on the Macron government for inaction against the Israeli crimes in Gaza.

The Prospect of US Military Withdrawal from Iraq

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: Although most currents, politicians and even ordinary people in Iraq call for withdrawal of American military forces from their country, there are sometimes differences of opinion regarding the time of this withdrawal. On the one hand, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq, is very serious in demanding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Still, he wants to achieve this goal through “negotiation and political deal”. On the other hand, the Iraqi Resistance groups want the Americans to leave this country as soon as possible. The American side is also talking about a military withdrawal from Iraq in the next three years.

Russia’s Multifaceted Relations with Neighbors

Strategic Council Online – Interview: An international affairs expert said: After Russia attacked Ukraine two years ago, the country’s relations with some of its European neighbors were severely disturbed in such a way that a clear future cannot be imagined for it.

Solution to Get Out of FATF Blacklist and Get Rid of Its Heavy Costs?

Strategic Council Online – Opinion: The Financial Action Task Force, FATF, announced on Friday, February 23, that the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran remains on the “blacklist” of this international organization. A decision that was not unexpected for the authorities of our country. According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, one day before the release of the FATF statement, due to the current sanctions, Iran is looking for its own FATF, as it uses other tools instead of SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications). On this basis, it seems that while the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon were removed from the “Grey List” of FATF in the previous reviews in June 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran is not trying to be exempted from the blacklist. But what kind of organization is FATF, and why are some in Iran against joining it? And what is the way out of this situation?

Loading