Ukraine Crisis & New Security Order in Europe

2022/02/06 | Note, political, top news

Strategic Council Online –Guest Post: The U.S. and its Western allies have put their forces into alert status and are deploying more warships ad fighters to the Eastern Europe that indicates rising concerns about the occurrence of a probable clash in the East Europe. Mohsen Sharif Khodaei, Analyst of European Affairs

What Russia does not want to take place, is Ukraine membership in NATO or NATO has a presence in Ukraine. What Russia wants to happen is NATO’s commitment not to install the offensive weaponry systems in Ukraine. Earlier negotiations proved that NATO is not ready to deliver this pledge.

NATO’s motivation to stay alive terminated in 1991 simultaneous with disbandment of Warsaw Pact. Since NATO promised that in case of Warsaw Pact disbandment, it would not be expanded Eastward till now, 14 countries in East Europe have joined it.

Putin believes that NATO has over-approached its borders. He wants to be rest assured that Ukraine will not be acceded to NATO as its member and he calls for a solid guarantee from Washington.

The main question is; to what extent the present crisis is related to Russia’s security and re-collecting of members of the former Soviet Union bloc would meet Russia’s requirement?

In 2005 Putin said:” the breakup of the Soviet Union has been the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”. Putin has said time and again that the peoples of Ukraine and Russia are a united nation. He has raised doubts whether Ukraine is a real country.

Any invasion of Ukraine is not only an attack to the U.S. but also a threat against other U.S. allies. This is a very important point for the Eastern European countries that have pinned their trust to the U.S. power and determination.

Although the U.S. and the West have threatened Russia with imposition of new sanctions in case it attacks Ukraine, but the sanctions already imposed by the West upon Russia after the occupation of Crimea, have not dissuaded Kremlin to adopt offensive attitude. Although the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump, the former U.S. president, on Nord Stream 2 pipeline project was loosened by Biden when he declared that the U.S. sanctions are ultimately temporary ones, but now he threatens that sanctions against Russia should be real, crippling and permanent, and Russia should turn to become an isolated country.

Does Russia intend to go beyond closing NATO’s open doors to Ukraine? and Does it want to push back the U.S. from Europe?

December 2021 coincided with the 30th anniversary of the Soviet Union breakup, when Russia lost its certain domination over the Eastern Europe. Putin intends to make the U.S. drink from the same poisonous chalice that Russia experienced in 1990. He believes that at present the U.S. is in the same plight as Russia used to be following the disbandment of the Soviet Union. Weakening inwardly, withdrawing outwardly. The U.S. and NATO made Russia to withdraw the remaining army of the Soviet Union from its bases in the Eastern Europe, Germany and Baltic States. From Russia’s point of view, the U.S. domestic problems after four years of Donald Trump’s presidency, the driven wedge with its Western allies and then quick withdrawal of the U.S. as well as NATO forces from Afghanistan are all indicatives of weakness of this global power. Putin hopes that if Russia exerts enough pressure, Moscow will probably be able to sign a new security agreement with NATO to prevent an endless clash.

Putin has managed to engage Biden Administration in endless tactical games which has placed the U.S. in a defensive position. Russia has deployed as much as 100000 troops to its borders along with Ukraine, heightened the tension, and now calls for solid guarantees that Ukraine and other former republics of the Soviet Union will not be acceded as NATO members.

Kremlin’s authorities have not only challenged the legitimacy of the U.S. position in Europe, but also raised questions about the U.S. bases in Japan and its role in Asia and Pacific region and thus have started a complicated game. They have also announced that they may deploy their hypersonic missiles to the U.S. backyard in Cuba and Venezuela in order to revive the 1960s Caribbean Crisis.

While there is a grave situation in Ukraine, it may also even turn to deterioration. Russia is ready to invade and calls for solid guarantees from Washington that NATO will not be expand Eastward. The U.S. and its allies in NATO are also studying the scenario that makes Russia to pay a high price in case of its probable attack against Ukraine.

It seems that the solution to settle the crisis in Ukrainian is that the Ukrainian government pledges officially that it will not become a NATO member and it will not join Collective Security Treaty Organization either.

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