Dr. Nozar Shafiei, speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated that three scenarios can be considered regarding the future government in Afghanistan, adding: According to the first scenario; an inclusive government may be formed, in which the Taliban will ultimately be only part of the power. In the second scenario, an inclusive government may be formed; but the Taliban will be a central and decisive part of power. The third scenario that can be imagined in this regard is that a government will be formed with the complete domination of the Taliban and the other forces will be so marginalized that their presence or absence will not make a difference and they may not share power at all.

Optimal scenario

Saying that creation of an inclusive government consisting of all religions, ethnicities and different political forces is a scenario that Iran expects to happen, he added: This scenario will lead to the continuation of a peaceful political life in Afghanistan and will be more favorable for Iran; because it creates stability, security and possibly public satisfaction; but given the circumstances, it seems that the Taliban simply do not accept this scenario, which will have serious consequences, and the Taliban must accept responsibility for the consequences.

The analyst of international affairs said: Based on the current situation and the second scenario, as the Taliban seize power and has become the dominant and determining force, the initiative will be taken away from other ethnic and religious groups and political forces, and there will certainly be a kind of discontent that will actually be on the razor edge and may happen at any moment and may create unrest as a result of the existing dissatisfaction any moment. Obviously, insecurity and unrest are not in Iran’s interest.

Shafiei continued: Iran should work in consultation with Russia, China and Pakistan to achieve the first scenario and create a comprehensive government; because going through this scenario will make the way back difficult. If the second scenario happens, Iran should use its diplomatic efforts alongside other levers of power and cooperate with other countries that are concerned about the situation and prevent this pessimistic scenario before Afghanistan enters into military conflict and move towards the third scenario.

He added: These scenarios also exist for Moscow and Beijing, of course the situation of the United States and Pakistan should be considered differently, and for them, and especially the United States, the occurrence of the third scenario is more favorable; because they are looking for a civil war and insecurity in Afghanistan.

The international affairs analyst, referring to the consequences of the civil war and insecurity for Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially Iran, stressed: If the developments in Afghanistan enter the third scenario, we will be witness to a long-term civil war with uncertain futures in that country with negative consequences and it will be very destructive, first for the people of that country and then for the countries of the region, and that is what the United States wants.

Behavior of Taliban must be verified

Shafiei referred to the positions of international organizations as well as Western countries regarding recognizing the Taliban and their legitimacy and said: We should recognize the government of Afghanistan and not the Islamic Emirate of the Taliban; because we expect the Taliban as part of power, not all of it. In addition, the behavior of the Taliban must be thoroughly tested to determine what they are saying in their positions; they are implementing in practice, or currently are chanting slogans tactically but behaving differently after gaining power!

He added: While consulting jointly with Russia and China, we must be very careful about recognizing the Taliban.

According to the university professor; in the current situation, Iranian diplomacy should be based on obtaining the necessary information about the transition process in Afghanistan in order for this process to be clear; for example, it should be clear that an interim government is to come to power and elections will be held in the next step. In fact, this process should be recognized, not a specific force. In addition, we must be careful that this process does not pose a threat to our interests.

Shafiei explained: We should be well aware of what is going to happen in Afghanistan from now on, and this should be one of the criteria for our approach to Kabul. Whether we want to recognize the government that has been formed or the decision not to recognize it, this process should be an influential factor in our decision-making. Unless agreements have already been reached and the Taliban are required to implement conditions such as establishing an inclusive government, agreeing to hold elections and not posing a threat to us.

He continued: If the second and third scenarios are to happen; recognition should not absolutely be done; because the reality is that we and other countries are afraid of future crises in this regard, and there is this concern that those scenarios will help consolidate a regime whose mission is essentially to threaten our national security. Therefore, we must act very delicately and note that today’s world is a complex world and not a linear one. Even if a lot of information has been exchanged between us and the Taliban, we should finally pay attention to the issue of “deception”.