Under the status quo when there are two months left to the US presidential elections, the most important component that has affected the US elections these days is the Coronavirus and its consequences. In the case of the absence of this issue, we could definitely say that Donald Trump would be the winner of the elections. At present, according to the opinion polls, it could be said that in which category each of the candidates, Trump and Joe Biden, are accepted.
Economically, despite the Corona crisis, most Republican bases and even a large section of the American people believe that the Republicans are more successful in economic management. Another factor that is in favour of the present US president these days is that he has fiery and stubborn supporters; to such an extent that about 60 per cent polled by Trump’s social bases said they would definitely vote for him, but in the case of Biden the figure is about 40 per cent.
The third component is that Trump is younger and healthier than Biden. That is why 56 per cent of the Democrats have said they are concerned about Biden’s age. In other words, the situation is not in favour of Biden in terms of his age either.
The other factor is that the Coronavirus has caused more economic and mortality damage in the states whose governors are Democrats, and therefore, the negative consequences of the Coronavirus cannot be attributed entirely to Trump. Although the situation has been set to some extent to the detriment of the President, but this is not a situation of 100%.
On the other hand, for Joe Biden, in this context, the issue of paying attention to the health insurance, which was previously raised by Barack Obama, is very important for the Americans, considering Corona disease and its costs.
In terms of environmental concerns, the attention that is paid by Biden to racial and gender equality is in a better condition than Trump.
In the field of foreign policy too, many Americans have said Trump’s orientation is wrong and that the situation is in Biden’s favour.
In a nutshell, it could be said that a series of components are in Trump’s favour while another series are not.
Major polls suggest that they are concerned about Donald Trump’s emotional and reactionary personality, and in the case of Biden about his age, believing that he may not even be able to finish his first term. However, in the polling in gray states, Biden is ahead of Trump. Exactly in September 2016, Hillary Clinton was 2.3% ahead of Trump. It seems that we have to wait until the first election debate, which will be held in late September because this debate is very influential in the final orientation of the gray states.
As for the future of Washington’s policies, in case of the victory of any of the candidates, it should be said that if Biden becomes US President, his foreign policy can be explained in one phrase, and that is the return to multilateralism. Of course, Biden believes in the threats that Trump has made to US interests and national security over the past four years, such as threats to Iran, China, North Korea, or the threat posed by terrorism, but believes that the approach to face with such threats is multilateral. That is to say, he will try again to revive transatlantic relations, including relations with Europe, whether in the form of NATO, the European Union or bilateral relations, and also will advance the issue of Iran and Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) within the framework of the same JCPOA mechanism.
In the meantime, Biden will also strengthen ties with Canada, Mexico and other Washington allies in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea and India, to meet all the challenges and threats in the field of foreign policy.
In the field of domestic politics, attention to environmental issues, racial and gender equality and medical issues will be a priority for Biden.
But if Donald Trump becomes the president, it seems that he will continue the same four-year approach, albeit a little more inflexible and stricter. Probably, in case he enters the White House once more, he will pursue a critical and divergent approach towards the EU; in the case of Russia he will adopt a cautious approach; in the face of the Islamic Republic of Iran Trump seems to be taking a more inflexible stance, as he will no longer worry about the next round of the elections and the impact of his policies on the election results. As for East Asia, Donald Trump will continue his unilateralist approach.