US Elections and Forecasting Future Ups and Downs

2020/03/22 | interview, political, top news

Strategic Council Online: An international relations professor said Donald Trump's chances of winning the next US election are higher and Democratic candidates are facing serious challenges in defeating him. He said in order to be able to defeat Trump they need to bring the cast of their ballots to defeat Trump. And if this cast does not vote for any reason, Trump has his fixed vote.

In an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Dr Abuzar Gohari Moghaddam said that the Democrats early election has reached a sensitive stage and Joe Biden too has achieved good results. He added that under the current situation the two main rivals, namely Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are confronting each other, reminding the Hillary-Sanders campaign in the previous round of presidential elections.

Challenging the Democrats

The leaders of the Democratic Party are facing two important options, said the analyst, adding that one option is Biden’s acceptance as a mainstream candidate with a clear and acceptable approach to the covert government which due to association with the traditional rule of the US has a little chance of defeating Trump, and even with more popular votes something similar to Hillary’s defeat in the previous round will happen.

The American affairs analyst said the second choice was accepting Bernie Sanders’ final nomination, adding that he was on the left-wing of the Democratic Party with pseudo-socialist or Socialist ideas. Sanders has some extreme views and is out of line with the party’s traditional body, but he could be pushed against a particular Trump because of these special approaches so that at least the Democrats are not losers in advance, and the story of Hillary’s defeat would not repeat. This double option will not leave the Democrats in the days and months ahead until the final candidate is elected and perhaps until the day of the election.

Gohari Moghaddam added: Sanders’ personal popularity may be more than Biden’s, but his party structure sees him as a Trump-like person who will be difficult to manage during presidency; so it is the super delegate who ultimately determines the party’s final candidate; Probably Biden will be assigned a role similar to the Sanders-Hillary race; the same as it was given to Clinton before, but this is a risk for the Democrats because Trump is particularly well-versed with genuine Democrats like Hillary Clinton and Biden and knows how to defeat them in election campaigns.

Referring to Clinton’s statements that she would support Sanders if he is the final candidate, the analyst said, “It shows that part of the body of the party is in doubt and has come to think that in the current situation the key issue is Trump’s defeat, not who is going to defeat him.

The international relations professor said at the same time: “Maybe if they hadn’t given Clinton their super delegate votes and if Sanders faced Trump he could have been president, but under the current circumstances, the probability is low.” Because, after all, Trump has been President for four years, and people still give him the credit for the improvement of the economy in some sectors, including indicators such as the unprecedented employment of the coloured in American history, as well as the tangible increase in employment of women.

Party Leaders Pay Attention to Biden

Gohari Moghaddam said Mr Biden’s party leaders appeared to be paying attention to the increase in Sanders’ votes in some states, adding: “If the trend continues, the party would give him their super delegate vote more openly.”

He also said of the Republican nominee’s status in the election and the impact of impeachment on Trump’s popularity: According to opinion polls at the time of impeachment, American society had become completely polarized. About 50 per cent of the population supported and another 50 per cent opposed the impeachment. This polarization of opinion and the reluctance to tend to either side illustrates what the Democrats wanted to do, and neither party succeeded in attracting a body from the gray sector to seriously alter the outcome.

Trump Didn’t Lose Much from Impeachment

The analyst said that Trump has not suffered much from the impeachment over the abuse of power in the Ukraine case. Although what happened was unprecedented in American history but opinion polls show that 90 per cent of those who voted for Trump in the previous round, will continue to vote for him, and the Democrats who did not vote for him will maintain the same stance. However, some believe that Trump’s personality, his acting style and his management are detested enough to change the minds of others.

Gohari Moghaddam called the allegations of impeachment a topic to be raised during the election campaign, adding that it is too early to predict who will win the election. We should also consider the sensitive states that have important votes and their makeup can vary. In many of these states, we do not see much decline in Trump votes, and forecasts are still early.

Trump’s Chance of Victory Is Higher

Noting that Trump has a higher chance of winning because traditionally an incumbent president has a higher chance of victory compared to an outsider, he said: “However, this doesn’t mean we want to ignore the Democrats.”

To defeat Trump, they must bring the body to the scene that is women, the coloured and ethnic minorities and the lower classes. If they do not vote for any reason, Trump has his own fixed-ball body.

Gohari Moghaddam continued: Many of the polls conducted by opinion poll centres these days are national polls and different from state electoral votes which ultimately determine the president. One should not be misled by-polls, he said.

On the possibility of Trump’s reelection in the upcoming presidential vote, he said: “It looks like he will lose some votes at least in the current situation because people have seen Trump for four years, but the economic indicators show that people are not unhappy and dissatisfied with him, and it shows that Democratic candidates are facing a serious challenge in defeating Trump unless there is something special going on in the months ahead to change the vote.

“My prediction, and those who believe Trump will win in the 2020 election, is that he will probably outnumber the Democratic candidates but that does not determine the president,” he said. The three million vote difference between Hillary Clinton and Trump in the previous election could go up to five million votes and Trump gets re-elected as president with big votes while his popular votes could be lower.

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