Nosratullah Tajik, in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council of Foreign Relations, in response to whether the threat of war by the Israeli regime against Lebanon is serious or not. He said, as reported in the media, Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting for a trip to the United States, a speech in Congress, and a conversation with Joe Biden, while the Americans also seem to have little reservations about the Zionist regime’s attack on Lebanon, except for the scope of the war be limited because they are very worried about its consequences.

He said that America believes that a full-scale war may open Iran’s feet to war. Therefore, it does not want a full-scale and wide-scale war. At the same time, America is not happy with the change in the regional balance in favor of Hezbollah due to the hardware and software capabilities it has. It welcomes the Israeli regime’s military strike against Hezbollah and weakening its capabilities.

Emphasizing that the effects of this war on the American elections cannot be ignored, this expert on international issues added: Of course, Europe’s concern in this regard is not insignificant because, in the event of a war, there are consequences for Europe, especially the issue of immigrants, and naturally, with Opposing and preventing immigrants and Muslims from entering Europe will create tensions in European countries.

Tajik, in response to a question about the potential for the Israeli army to enter into war with Lebanon considering the conflict in Gaza, said: The exchange of media messages and psychological warfare is part of the case, and part of it is due to miscalculation or overestimation of the parties’ own position. However, the more important part is related to field facts. In any case, since the beginning of the Gaza war, from October 7 until now, there have been some attacks between the Israeli regime and Hezbollah, and the intensity has increased and decreased at each point. Although both sides have attacked each other’s military infrastructure, it has been accompanied by restraint, and efforts have been made to avoid a large-scale conflict. But in addition to being threatened by some sensitive points from the sides, which may have been more of a psychological war than an operational aspect, the psychological consequences of the start of the war still cast a vast shadow on Lebanon and the region, which caused the concern of many political and international figures, countries and international institutions.

This former diplomat of our country said: The goal of the Israeli regime is to destroy the military infrastructure, both offensive and defensive, as well as the cadres and strategic forces of Hezbollah and its managerial and influential forces, to disable the operational organization of Hezbollah militarily. On the other hand, the Hآezbollah has shown a soft and hard power of its own, which has somehow caused the Israelis to panic. In the last year, Hezbollah’s use of some military equipment, including drones, including the Hudod drone, has shown that it has a good military capability and the ability to disrupt equations. The 27-kilometer penetration of the Hodod UAV in the occupied territories, passing through the three Iron Dome bases, photographing them, and returning to Lebanon was a terrible blow to the security hegemony of the Israeli regime, as this regime is no longer able to use Iron Dome’s propaganda for political, security and slow economy.

This expert on international issues stated that a war between Hezbollah and the Israeli regime will occur, but its size cannot be estimated. Also, its severity depends on the reaction of Hezbollah and other countries, including the United States and France, which somehow have influence in Lebanon.

It is natural that if the Israeli regime starts a large-scale operation, especially in the south of Lebanon, Hezbollah will also respond. If it becomes widespread, others will also be involved. Lebanon is not under siege like Gaza, and, naturally, Hezbollah’s allies will come to its aid from sea and from land, and the war will spread. The capabilities of Hezbollah cannot be compared with those of Hamas. Hezbollah has had the experience of two previous wars, in 1982 and 2006. After the 33-day war, it significantly strengthened its military capabilities and created trouble for the Israeli regime and its military through asymmetric wars.

He continued: The Hezbollah has not overlooked the Israeli regime’s war in Gaza and has examined the weak points and vulnerabilities of this regime. If the Israeli regime cannot achieve its goals in the short term, like the war in Gaza, it will have more problems than before.

Tajik stated:  Bringing the Lebanese land out of the occupation of the Israeli regime is another issue that is raised concerning the possible conflict between Tel Aviv and Beirut, and this goes beyond the issue of Hezbollah’s support for Hamas and the people of Gaza is a new parameter that is included in the equations.  The Israeli regime has occupied a part of southern Lebanon; the Hezbollah says it must evacuate the land. Before, there was an agreement in this regard whereby Hezbollah would keep its distance within a range of 40 kilometers from the southern borders of Lebanon. Still, after October 7, this was no longer respected.

This expert on international affairs said about the start of the conflict between the Israeli regime and Hezbollah and the protection of this regime for issues such as the release of prisoners: because the story of the war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza has passed its peak, it is unlikely that negotiations about a cease-fire and conflicts in Gaza will prevent an attack. Israel may go to Lebanon, and it will not have much effect. Also, other issues, such as the possibility of reorganizing Hamas and the US presidential election, are nothing that will stop Netanyahu from thinking of attacking Lebanon unless the opposition and pressure from the US are really serious.

He emphasized that Netanyahu’s visit to America and meeting with US officials was very important in his decision to launch the attack. He wants to make this trip first and get some agreements before starting his attacks to get a definite promise of financial support and weapons from Biden. This is similar to the incident in Gaza, where, at one or two points, he stopped the shipment of weapons to Israel so that it does not happen in the case of Lebanon. At the same time, the political support of the Israeli regime in public opinion from the US is very important.

Tajik added: The attack on Lebanon and the conflict with the Hezbollah, which is the Axis of Resistance, requires a lot of calculations. On the other hand, Hezbollah’s attacks on the north of the Occupied Territories and the weapons it uses have caused the evacuation of the residents of this area, which is a pressure point on the Israeli regime.

At the same time, he clarified that Lebanon is a small country with a strategic position and is not an ordinary country. Due to the existence of different clans and religions, it has many stakeholders, and he can strike fear into the lives of the Israeli regime by disrupting regional equations.

The international affairs expert said that the Israelis are seeking to rebalance the power in their favor in the region by attacking Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has shown in its statements and actions that it has no intention of allowing the Israeli army to enter Lebanon anymore. Hezbollah believes that the Israelis have occupied part of their lands in southern Lebanon and justifies any conflict to protect Lebanon’s territorial integrity. From Hezbollah’s point of view, it is not necessary to only support Hamas or the people of Gaza and end the crimes of the Zionists in this regard but also to remove the occupation. The Israeli regime insists that Hezbollah return to the previous agreement and move its forces behind the Litani River, but this is not acceptable for Hezbollah because the Israeli regime has settled the settlers up to the border with Lebanon.

Tajik said: Although the occurrence of a comprehensive war in the current situation will cause the most damage and impact to the Zionist regime, it will not benefit the region and the people of Lebanon. Therefore, more political and diplomatic activity is needed to prevent the start of war through effective countries and not have unwanted consequences for Lebanon and the region.