Dr. Vali Kaleji, a senior researcher at the Presidential Center for Strategic Studies and a member of the Scientific Council of the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (IRAS), speaking in an interview with the website of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations said that Russia is the only country which officially has a military base in the Caucasus with two bases in Armenia and two other in the Abkhazia and south Ossetia. He added: Turkey, with its maximum efforts, has been authorized to have the military presence of its troops at the Karabakh center to monitor the ceasefire in the Agdam district, which was established under the tripartite Karabakh ceasefire agreement. He noted: Establishment of any new military base in the region will lead to tension.

He added: Apparently, Turkey’s moves to provide security and monitor the communication corridor between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan are what the Azeris call the “Zangezur corridor”.

Need to disambiguate ceasefire agreement

Saying that unfortunately, the ninth clause of the Karabakh ceasefire agreement regarding the Nakhchivan-Azerbaijan corridor is ambiguous and needs to be cleared up, he added: The leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, as the signatories of the Karabakh ceasefire deal, should once again sit around the table and clarify that clause, which has become a point of contention. Which cities and regions of Armenia should this route pass through, its security and duration, as well as its ownership, should be technically determined, otherwise the vicious cycle of conflict and ethnic violence in the Caucasus region will continue.

The expert on Caucasus affairs noted that Turkey is behaving in a multifaceted manner after the war in Karabakh, saying that the country is trying to play a political, economic, cultural and military role and in addition to the presence of its military representatives at the Karabakh center to monitor the ceasefire, they are also active in the field of demining with Russia, and unfortunately we have not been present in this field yet. Finally, strengthening military and security cooperation between the two countries, which reached its peak during the war, is still continuing.

Russia’s concern

Kaleji commented on Russia’s sharp stance with regard to the news of possible establishment of a Turkish military base in the Republic of Azerbaijan and said: Russia is concerned with several aspects. In particular, despite the differences that have developed between Turkey and NATO, Turkey is still a member of NATO, and the Turkish military base in the Caucasus is also considered as a kind of NATO military base. An issue that the Russians do not easily deal with.

The analyst of the Caucasus affairs stressed: Despite extensive cooperation with Turkey, Russia does not want changing of the whole balance of power in the Caucasus fundamentally in Turkey’s favor. During the Second Karabakh War, the Russians stopped the war after Shusha was captured and only 11 km from Khankandi, the center of Karabakh, and a ceasefire was signed and signed the ceasefire statement. They felt that if the whole of Karabakh returned to the rule of the Republic of Azerbaijan, all the balance of power would change in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey, so they ended the war where there would be a relative balance in the region.

He stressed: Turkey is heavily involved in important economic, energy and tourism projects with Russia. They do not want to upset all those equations just because of the military base in Azerbaijan.

Saying that establishment of any foreign military base near our borders is negative and unacceptable, he said: Security of the countries in the region must be ensured by themselves or through bilateral and multilateral cooperation among them. Military presence of other countries in this fragile situation in the Caucasus could increase tensions, make Armenia heavily concerned and strengthen Russia’s military presence in Armenia, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. On the other hand, NATO should also be provoked. Of course, the extent to which Turkey intends to do so in coordination with NATO, or independently, is another matter and needs to be studied more closely; but the very creation of a military base could in the future create competition for the establishment of other bases in the region.

Emphasizing that the Caucasus region is in a very decisive and key position in the current situation, Kaleji explained: The conditions and platform for economic cooperation have been provided to open the region’s communication routes after 30 years. The destroyed Soviet-era railway in the South Caucasus should be renovated and connect Iran to the Caucasus Railway. Azerbaijan should be connected to Nakhchivan and Armenia will be released from the deadlock after 30 years and will be connected to the main communication arteries in the region, including the open waters of the Mediterranean.

The expert on Caucasus affairs added: Certainly, with threats, tensions and establishment of a military base, it is not possible to achieve mentioned goals, as they would only fuel pessimism and tensions. While the region needs to seize the opportunity created after the Karabakh ceasefire agreement and the emphasis on opening and unblocking communications, this is a unique opportunity for the region.