Zahra Asghari – International Relations Researcher

On December 4, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unexpected speech to the people. This action occurred for the first time in the past half-century, leaving the country’s people in shock and astonishment. Yoon cited “anti-national forces” and threats from North Korea as the reason for this action. The South Korean parliament reacted quickly, and in an extraordinary session, MPs lifted the martial law decree in less than a few hours. Ultimately, the South Korean president accepted the parliament’s decision and issued an order to lift the martial law.

Yoon Suk Yeol has been suspended from office after the recent impeachment, and South Korea’s Constitutional Court has 180 days to decide on his political future. The court can either confirm Yoon Sul Yol’s removal or reinstate him.

After Yoon Suk Yeol refused to resign at the opposition party’s request in South Korea, the parliament put an option for impeachment on the table. Although the approval of the president’s impeachment was a tortuous path, it has now been completed. However, after the parliament approves the impeachment, the Constitutional Court must make the final decision. This court must prove that the president has committed serious violations. In this case, the president will be removed from office. Of course, this court can determine that no unconstitutional action was taken, in which case the president will remain in office.

If actions such as declaring martial law and lifting it cause widespread dissatisfaction among the people, it may put social pressure on the members of parliament and force them to support the impeachment of the president. At the same time, since the People Power Party in South Korea holds the majority of votes, the impeachment of the president will not be possible without the approval of this party. Therefore, the opposition party seeking impeachment must comprehensively and effectively use the internal disputes of the ruling party to influence them somehow to pay attention to this issue. One of the things that may make the opposition party’s job easier in this regard is the issue of public and nationwide opposition to the president’s action in declaring martial law. Therefore, if the ruling party loses public support and internal disputes become widespread, there is a possibility that they will agree to the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol and stop supporting him.

There is also a possibility that if the domestic political situation becomes critical and public opposition and protests against the president increase, the ruling party will ask the president to resign. Such a decision will be made if the possibility of political instability and collapse in Korea increases. The president will be forced to resign to prevent such an event and preserve South Korea’s political image.

With the approval of the impeachment, the work for the opposition party has just begun because it must convince enough MPs of the ruling party to support the impeachment. If there are disagreements within the ruling party about Yoon’s performance, this could give the opposition party an opportunity to succeed in the impeachment.

At the same time, international reactions, especially from the United States and other South Korean allies, to the political crisis have not been without effect on the intensification of the atmosphere. Since South Korea is an important ally of the United States, it is natural that it supports political stability in this country. However, supporting stability does not necessarily mean supporting the ruling party and the current president because the continued presence of Yoon Suk Yeol may exacerbate and fuel instability. Therefore, it remains to be seen in which direction the political and social process in South Korea will move in the next three months.

Although the president’s impeachment has been voted in the parliament and the president’s removal is legally possible, success in this matter depends on the necessary and sufficient support from the parliament and the constitutional court. Given the majority of the ruling party in the parliament, removing Yoon Suk Yeol will definitely not be an easy task unless the ruling party suffers serious internal party disputes or social pressure intensifies.