Under the presidency of Donald Trump, the scope of the US-China trade war has grown to such an extent that Huawei Company has been subject to US sanctions. Despite negotiations between the two sides to forge an agreement the severe trade war still goes on.

The US sanctions on Huawei caused suspension of the firm’s Android license which had a drastic and significant impact on the decline in sales of the company. However, Huawei’s senior executives said the threat has been turned into an opportunity to develop Huawei technology, and that they have been considering and implementing a proprietary alternative operating system for Android for a long time.

This opportunity can be a prelude to the development of Huawei in a course similar to that of Apple, which has an IOS operating system. In that case, further escalation of the trade war is predictable. Recently, the US blacklisted five Chinese supercomputer firms. One of these companies has partnered with Intel and NVIDIA with its three subsidiaries (Sugon) and another company, Wuxi Jiangnan, in the field of computing technology.

Development of exclusive technology for Chinese products, including development of alternative operating systems for the current operating systems in the world’s ICT products, is one of the Chinese options for dealing with US warfare; on the other hand, the United States is focusing on preventing the implementation of the “Made in China 2025” strategy, to boost its sanctions options.

In addition, increased customs duties, devaluation of the Yuan to help exports from the country and compete more with American products on world markets, setting tough rules for the activities of American companies, revising the business relationship with the American Boeing Corporation and the tendency towards its rivals, and even disrupting the American-North Korean ‘fox and wily crow’ game and restoring it to the critical conditions before the Singapore Meeting are among China’s main options for dealing with the US trade war. However, the prospect of a trade war does not merely depend on US and China’s strategies, and the presence of other stakeholders in the game also affects its results.

New Actors of Trade War

When the US trade war broke out with China, the European Union and the NAFTA countries, few experts thought that Washington’s trade war project would afflict India as well. But the two countries’ trade war has commenced on the basis of the toll on imports of goods. India, in response to US tariffs for its steel and aluminium, has declared twenty-eight American products such as chemical and agricultural items subject to customs tariffs.

India’s foreign trade volume with the US is about $90 billion and its imports from the United States is about 60 per cent compared to US imports from India. In other words, India’s trade surplus compared to the United States will make a trade war more profitable for Washington. The US also has the option of imposing tariffs on India’s gems, textiles and IT services, and this option could prolong the ping pong tariff trade war. In addition, many Indian citizens are teleworking for American companies, and this option can also be a means to intensify the US trade war.

In sum, although Donald Trump should focus on the 2020 presidential election campaign, however his appraisal and that of his team on the probability of a win will make it possible to expand the scope of US trade war to other countries with a potential to generate challenges for foreign trade, technology and markets under the control of American companies.

Nevertheless, in case Trump wins the 2020 election, this game would be turned into a cartelization arena by Trump, which would seek to stabilize the dominant position of the United States in other emerging countries, who would decide their share by following the US share. But the containment of this game would depend on the resolve and convergence of the countries subjected to the US trade war and sanctions.